Tuesday 3:00PM

Flash!!!!!!!!!!

 

Just saw the most vengeful break through of the Westerlies into the southern half of the State the end of the month in the ECMWF control   Would be awesome if it came true……I doubt it but stay tuned over the next couple of days to see if she sticks…….  There most definitely will be a change in the pattern going into the new month…

 

The Dweeber

 

Monday Noon Update 1-13-14:

I am beginning to see some “retrogression” in the long wave pattern over the eastern pacific and western CONUS in all global models about the end of week two.. The GFS has been too aggressive with it over the last few days and today is much more tame.  What is encouraging is that all the global models have it to some degree including the ECMWF model,  toward the end of the week two period. Although it is much too incipient to get excited about, it is possible that we may be beginning to see some changes that will have implications for February.  I’ll take another look at it Wednesday…..

As the upper high builds in…gusty north winds will buffet the ridges and down through the Owens Valley.

Expect height rises and strong temp inversions with warming aloft through Tuesday thru Thursday.  Needless to say it will be another dry week.

Highs will climb into the 50s by mid-week and lows at night at resort levels in the 20s. The valleys will be cold….single digits and teens…

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

 

Saturday Morning Update:

Again, last nights GFS and even this mornings GFS 12Z run is trying very hard to under cut the upper ridge with the westerlies. The big question I have is how is it going to do that? I looked at the MJO and it is very weak and should not have any effect in modulating the westerlies to the point of extending that Asian Jet to the west coast. I checked the ENSO indexes for the regions 4 and 3.2 and they are pretty neutral.  So there appears to be no unusual tropical convection in those areas coming off anomalously warm tropical waters. There is Kelvin wave activity, more associated with the Westerly Phase of the QBO that will eventually lead to El Nino Conditions next Fall.  Additionally, we continue to have anomalous warm water in the Southern Gulf of AK supporting higher than normal heights aloft in that region. The core is located at 43N-148W.  But again….How is it that the GFS is spinning up the Asian Jet and seemingly extending it strong enough to the east to break down the West coast ridge……Something in the model is trying to do that.

With that said, I once again looked at the ECMWF’s ensembles through day 15 and the control. ..  The upper ridge over the west coast is static and modulates meridianally, but moves little west or east. However the Ensemble Control, has a strong short wave coming into the Ridge on the 19th (a week from this Sunday) The Control splits it into a deep cut off then moves it south down the California coast.  Now we can get some snowfall from a system like that but you looking at something like a trace to 6 inches depending upon where it is in relation to the coast.  The following short wave  in the ECMWF’s control model is part of a retrogressing upper ridge which would end up as a strong inside slider. This is also considered a dry pattern bringing usually light amounts of snowfall along with much colder weather. Remember that the EC’s true ensembles argues against retrogression at this time. So although we have the possibility of some unsettled weather ahead of us week two, the thought of an extension of the Asian Jet, strong enough to totally break down the west coast ridge creating a major pattern change to a long wave Trof is very unlikely at this time.  As mentioned yesterday, I am sticking with the ECMWF until it changes……IE no change to California’s dry pattern over the next two weeks other than the possibility of some light precipitation.  Stay Tuned……and pray for a change…..

 

Saturday Sunday weather….

 

Windy and cloudy today and tonight…breezy Sunday. Slight chance of some very light snow tonight with a dusting to an inch. Expect west winds Saturday 20 to 40 with gusts possible to 60MPH through 10PM tonight. There is a high wind warning for Mono County at the moment. High temps today will be cooler in the upper 40s and lows over night after the FROPA in the teens and twenties.  Sunday will be PC in the AM then clearing in the PM. It will be a cooler day as well highs near 40 on Sunday. Lows Sunday night in the teens…..  Fair dry and warmer Monday through Wednesday. Next chance of a system is Sunday the 19th.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)

 

 

________________________________________________________________________

Nothing has changed in the week one period. Expect an unsettled weekend with cooler temperatures Sunday.  There is a slight chance of snow showers during the PM hours Saturday. Winds will be the big issue with gusts in town 40 to 50 mph with a few to 60mph in some of the windier areas.

I checked the DWP site and comparing the Mammoth Pass Water content to January of 1977, we are dead even at this point according to the chart provided that is accessible on my favorite links. However, remember, an actual manual measurement has not been performed yet.

Next week will be Ridge City. This time the upper ridge builds over California with even higher heights than this week. …This sends the PNA index well into the Positive area next week.  This is a big reason why the forecast from the CPC is showing temperature departures from Normal  practically off the chart for the 6 to 10 outlook period over the Great Basin. Nearly the same is forecasted for the 8 to 14 day period.

The week one and week two forecasters are locking into the ECMWF which has been the most consistent in it ensembles. Several of the California METS in their discussions keep bringing up the GFS week two runs which have not had the consistency of the EC. Personally I am sticking with the EC until it changes. I am not buying into the GFS which most METS would agree is not the superior model for Week 2 anyway. I’m not being negative, just objective. We would all like the pattern to change but we can not wish it away. You have to stick with what you have until there is convincing data out there to the contrary. That is what the CPC is doing in their 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks….

SEE: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Additionally, It is very interesting that the MJO has been quieter than I can ever remember, since I have been watching. The MJO often times modulates the westerly’s and forces an extension of the upper Asian jet to the west coast.  This year so far it has not.

While we continue with an unreal drought, Mammoth Mountain still has every lodge open. With many runs open and the best skiing in California. They will be making a lot of snow this weekend, especially Sunday with cooler temperatures.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)