Heavy Convective Snowshowers! 


Main Vort Center moves through at 4:00pm

An Amazing 6” snowfall in one hour!!!!!  Yes, between 3:00pm and 4:03 PM at the main lodge 6 inches fell according to the Plot at the base lodge! This brings the total to 18 inches at the main lodge and most likely about 2 feet on top.  More to come tonight!!!  At least another 6 to 12 inches by 10:00PM then another 2 to 4 by Morning Saturday. (On Mammoth Mtn)


As of 9:00AM:

At Mammoth Weather.com at the 8200 foot level I have picked up 7 inches of fresh since 5:00am.  It is Snowing moderately at the moment. Temperatures have warmed up to 31 degrees since it was 27 at sunrise, an example of the Warm Sector of this system. Once the warm front has passed, we may have a short break before the Upper Jet enhanced colder precip arrives by 12:00pm. I suspect that we are at the highs for the day today because of the following…..

Fous 73 numerical data off the 12Z NAM show 1000-500mb Thicknesses at Fresno (FAT) 552DN at 12Z; then lowering to 548DM at 18Z.  Thickness falls continue through the day/night. By 00z Saturday, 544DM then down to 542DM by 06Z Sat.   What is interesting is that FAT shows a negative Lifted of -2 by 18Z and 0 lifted by 00Z. So do not be surprised if you hear some Thunder this afternoon in the Sierra. Probably mostly on the west side. I Checked the Vertical Motion…..it shows +12 at 18Z with the negative lifted of -2 then +20 in the max at 0 lifted.   Thus this afternoon there is going to be some pretty vigorous rising air columns!  Thunderstorms over the southern SJV you bet!  Possibly some cold core funnels as well.  The southern San Joaquin Valley will not be a good place to be flying if you’re in a small plane today!


Otherwise the snowfall forecast for Mammoth through Saturday is unchanged.  12 to 18“ in town and 20 to 30“ over the upper elevations……

PS, The MJO seems to be trapped between Phases 7 and 8. So for the time being the East Asian upper Jet will continue to be strong, for possibly another week. This give support to the ECMWFs version of the extended showing another significant storm for Wednesday or Thursday next week before we ridge up for my Sons Wedding on the 8th!

The Dweebs are doing what we can for you Cliff!…………..;-)


The Dweeber…………………………..:-)