MONDAY AM UPDATE:

Although the Fishing Opener was cold…..Best action reported in several years!!!! Combination of waning moon and open waters most of the winter…..warmer SSTs…. highlighted the great Fishing!  Bottom Line……The fish were hungry!

Great week of weather shaping up…..enjoy it while you can……Winters Grip may return the following week in the month of May!

More Tomorrow>>>>>

 

The Dweeber………………………….:-)

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This was a pre-fishing opener storm to be remembered…..3.00 of water tallied at the snow plot on Mammoth Mt. Certainly one of the biggest storms of the year over a 24 hour period…..

The rest of the weekend will be breezy in town and windy over the upper elevations.  We still have a NW upper jet to contend with that will translate through California beginning later today, then lift north up into Canada toward mid week.  I think that it is safe to say that yesterdays storm was the last big storm of the season, but not the last storm….There will be more action later in May……

In the meantime, expect increasing clouds with an over running swath of moisture moving into the Sierra tonight and into Sunday. This moisture is associated with a strong NW upper jet that will over-run the colder air currently in place. Sometimes you can get a little light precip from it. But whatever happens, it will be no big deal. Temperatures will gradually climb through the middle of next week.

There is an emphasis on breezy conditions this afternoon and windy weather later tonight into Sunday, as we become under the influence of the front right exit region, of a powerful 150 Knot NW upper Jet!  This upper jet will initially stretch from the date line to Nevada, then all the way to Louisiana. Over the course of time, it lifts north to Canada by Tuesday as a large scale Anti Cyclone builds over the Eastern Pacific then into California. This will bring the return of late spring weather like what we had earlier this past week.

Again, most likely,  this will be the last storm of “this intensity” this season.  However, we still have plenty of time for Cut-Off Low pressure systems or even a strong cold trof from the Gulf of AK that brings spring time thunder and light to moderate snowfalls too. I like the performance of the CFS this month and last as it accurately forecasted the active weather pattern that developed in the mid to late April period well over a month ago.  You have to give credit where credit is due.   This air-sea experimental model that may be doing a better job these days because of the change of the sea surface temperatures due to the recent Kelvin wave that has moved east through much of the ENSO Basin.

It has been forecasting a wet period for the eastern sierra and Central and Northern CA for the 2nd and into the 3rd week of May. IE between the 8th and the 20th.  So mark your calendar for that time frame with a note to see how well it does. Meaning lets see if there is a storm or two during that time frame before we say a Final Farewell to the “Infamous Winter of 2014″……

 

EL Nino:

I want to make a comment about the Hype of the Big Kelvin Wave that has moved across the tropical pacific near the Equator and has successfully brought warmer then normal SSTs to a large region of the ENSO basin.  This is just one of hopefully more Kelvin Waves through out the Summer and Fall. The Kelvin Wave begins over the Western Pacific as strong westerly wind bursts cause an action/reaction in the ocean to depths down to 300M. The winds at the surface cause upwelling which causes cooling over the Western pacific and the reaction of the open wave is that warm water gets being pushed out in front of the wave that travels east below the surface, which eventually rises out over the central pacific and  beyond.

As far as predicting a big winter for the west coast due to El Nino, I am not “at this time” buying into that scenario.

Why?

Because for one, It is too early. Two, We are still in a long term cycle of the negative phase of the PDO which tends to dampen the effects of the Kelvin Waves over ENSO regions 1, 2 and 3 regions. Yes you could make the Argument that the PDO has been positive for the past three month. But only weakly positive. It would not take much for the sign to change back to negative this year.

So what could happen next Fall?  We may end up with the Modoki El Nino. A sort of hybrid where by SSTA’s are warmer than normal over the central pacific but colder than normal over the tropical eastern pacific. IE Sort of like an El Nino and a La Nina combined all in one.   I am not saying that this will happen, but it is too soon to say that it won’t.

For more information on the difference between the Classic El Nino and the Modoki El Nino, please click the following link:

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/large-scale-differences-between-the-full-basin-el-nino-and-el-nino-modoki-during-u-s-winter/

For the progress of the latest Kelvin Wave…See the following link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)