Friday AM Update:

The storm system that brought the Showers yesterday has now moved into AZ. Expect a mostly sunny day today with some afternoon clouds and a slight chance of a shower.  (See below for comments from Spaceweather.com for tonight’s meteor shower….

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The cut off low over Southern California has continued to circulate moisture counter-clockwise over Southern Mono County.  This has resulted in everything from light rain/snow mix to a few TSRWS over the Sierra Thursday. The upper flow here in Mammoth has been from the NE and is likely to continue through the night tonight. By Friday the upper low will be into AZ and sunny skies will return with warmer temps. Highs temps in mid to upper 60s are expected Friday. Winds will be light.

Saturday will be partly cloudy but warm with highs near 70.  Sunday and Monday will be warmer yet with highs in the mid 70s. Lows at night in the 30s and 40s. There may be some diurnal convection with a few isolated showers or TSRWS over the higher terrain Sat and Sun, but do not expect much if any rain.

The outlook shows breezy weather developing for Monday and Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts east due to a passing short wave to our north. The next period of springtime Thunder may be as early as next weekend as another springtime upper trof digs down the west coast Thursday night, then inland later Friday into Saturday.  This will breeze us up 1st then cool us down with the chance of showers.   I’ll have more later on this system later………………….

Kelvin Wave Update:

According to the CPC, the leading edge of the next Kelvin Wave has just reached the Western Pacific while a 3rd Kelvin Wave has just moved over the Western Indian Ocean.  Comment from the Dweebs…..For a full basin El Nino to really get established, Ocean SSTA off Australia has to cool to below normal substantially to give this system legs….

 

From: Spaceweather.com

Late Tonight, Earth will pass through a stream of debris from Comet 209P/LINEAR. If forecasters are correct, the encounter could produce an outburst of bright meteors numbering more than 200 per hour. The shower’s radiant is in the constellation Camelopardalis, the Giraffe, not far from the North Star. Peak rates are expected on Saturday, May 24th, between the hours of 0600 UT and 0800 UT (11:00pm Friday to 1:00a.m Saturday PDT). The timing and location of the radiant favors observers in North America.

Earth won’t be the only body passing through the debris zone. The Moon will be too. Meteoroids hitting the lunar surface could produce explosions visible through backyard telescopes on Earth. The inset in this picture of an actual lunar meteor shows the region of the crescent Moon on May 24th that could be pelted by May Camelopardalids:

According to NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office, the best time for amateur astronomers to scan the Moon for lunar meteors is after 0800 UT (4 a.m. EDT) on May 24th.

There is much uncertainty about the strength of this shower, both on Earth and on the Moon. As far as we know, our planet has never passed directly through a debris stream from Comet 209P/LINEAR, so no one knows exactly how much comet dust lies ahead. A magnificent meteor shower could erupt, with streaks of light in terrestrial skies and sparkling explosions on the Moon–or it could be a complete dud.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)