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Archive for June, 2014
Models Yo-Yo back to a warmer weekend….still no sustained southerly or southeast flow in our outlook….So any heat related Thunderstorms will be isolated next week…….
Tuesday June 24, 2014
Thursday AM….
Surprise! Badly needed rains are falling in Mammoth Lakes. The short wave trof decided to come in further south than the models had predicted. The trof picked up on a subtropical plume located well North and west of Hawaii early this week. The plume was expected to only effect Northern Ca northward where rains have dumped over a half an inch already in the Northern Sierra. Looking at the ECMWF Model….This may be the beginnings of an EL Nino Summer where by the summer will be affected by an active upper jet during the Summer season. What we need to watch for is alternating periods of heat then cool downs with wind. This late June trof may-be just one of several summer trofs that will lead up into a very exciting winter!
The weather still looks very warm over the weekend and into early next week with highs in the 80s in Mammoth and into the 100s for the Owens Valley….
Stay tuned…..The Dweebs see more Trofs rolling in This July……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)
Wednesday Update:
This will be brief…..Wind advisories this afternoon for area boaters…Be off the larger lakes by 12:00PM….Wind gusts 40mph to as strong as 50mph in the windier areas are expected this PM
Red Flag Warning same time period for critical fire conditions.
High today 74 tomorrow 64. It will continue to be breezy Thursday but the humidly will recover…
Brief statement about the confusing relationship of the MJO to the Kelvin Wave,
Again it is Atmospheric teleconnections>>>>MJO>>>>Kelvin Wave. The Kelvin wave does not initiate the MJO according to Jon Gottschalck of the CPC.
Longer Range: New 12z GFS 6/25/2014 has 1st strong indication of SE flow developing Monday PM into that week. (Thunderstorm Pattern)
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
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With a trof headed for the coast Wednesday, it is now noted that its track has decidedly taken a position further to the north, along with best moisture to the north as well. So the idea of any showers this far south is no longer in the forecast. However, with that said, the winds will still be an issue, as strong thermally induced winds will develop Wednesday with added support into the night and into the early morning hours Thursday by the upper jet. Thus….This will be a protracted wind event for the high country that will begin during the late morning Wednesday and continue through the night Wednesday night and even into Thursday. By Thursday, it will be cooler with our air mass containing more humidity. From a fire danger point of view, the most critical conditions will be from early Wednesday afternoon through about Midnight. Thursday will be cooler by about 10 degrees so daytime highs will be in the upper 60s.
Weekend Outlook:
For what ever reasons….the models have flipped back to a warmer weekend; an idea of earlier model runs. Temperatures will surge some 15+ over Thursdays highs by Sunday. That will bring Mammoth its first uncomfortable weekend for locals not used to mid 80 degree heat by Sunday and into Monday.
Longer Range….
The heat really builds over the west the first several days of July. It sill looks apparent that the AZ Monsoon will be delayed into Eastern California. Although the longer range initiates SE flow into AZ around the 4th of July…..it has difficulty pushing it WNW into Nevada, let alone Eastern CA. So it appears that in the meantime, any thunderstorms will be isolated, and with enough periodic SW flow, our local air mass looks pretty stable for the time being…. When that changes…the Dweebs will let you know….
Down Under……
Lots of folks like to draw the conclusion that the winters of the Australian Alps and the Sierra are linked. I personally do not believe that is true. However, lets start the rumor mill going just for fun, with the notion that there may be some truth to that.
Check out the story at the following link…. http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-ideas/best-snowfalls-in-a-decade-forecast-for-eastern-australia-strap-yourselves-in-for-the-megablizzard/story-e6frfqdr-1226963855196
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)
Back peddeling going on now with the idea of above normal temps in early July……Gulf of AK Upper Low Anomalously strong will feed a series of short wave trofs to the west coast….bringing more wind to the high country later in the upcoming week and beyond. There is even the possibility of showers related to FROPA moving in from the pacific Thursday……Stay tuned…….
Sunday June 22, 2014
What happening??? Week 1 and 2 models all have a pretty good storm hitting the west coast later this upcoming week and another the following week. The results will be some significant periods of wind for the high country beginning this Wednesday, a chance of showers and cooling for Thursday.
In an earlier discussion a few weeks ago, the Dweebs highlighted what an ENSO Forced Summer might look like:
1. Anomalous Trofing along the west coast.
2. The tendency for the Summer to be a both Cooler and Windier than normal with warmest weather occurring later in July.
3. The Summer Continental High position displaced further east of climatology.
4. Less Thunderstorm activity.
So the effect of ENSO may be beginning to show up in the models now.
With that all said….it does appear from the current standpoint of view that unless a major change occurs, this El Niño is not going to be anything close to a Super Nino. In fact, there has been cooling in the Nino region 4 and 3,4 area for the past several weeks. What were seeing is a wimpy Nino! Will there be another strong Kelvin Wave that will rejuvenate the Nino Basin with warmth? No one really knows thus far. Nevertheless…..there may be some air-sea coupling resembling what we might expect here along the west coast with an El Nino Summer……IE Breezy….cooler then normal and less heat related TSRWs…. with the Mono County Convergence zone displaced further east.
Winter and ENSO:
With a weakening of the +SSTA’s in NINO 3.4 and 4 region’s, Most scientist’s will not be going out on a limb on next winter until they see what is happening next Fall. With that said, we can still get a good winter even in a weak to moderate El Nino here in California.. However….. it tends to favor the Southern Part of the state even more. There tends to be a lot of split flow waves and systems headed down the coast.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)
Say Good-Bye to Spring today…the first day of Summer arrives Saturday with the Summer Solstice arriving at 3:51AM Local Time….High temps in Mammoth will waist no time at all getting into the low 80s by Monday-Tuesday next week….
Friday June 20, 2014
As we say good by to Spring….The next transition will be from the current Spring like pattern of weak migratory trofs moving into the pacific NW, modulating our local Zephyr, to a pattern highlighted by a strengthening continental high over the four corner states.
It is always fun to watch this transition from a global model point of view, as Climatology points the way, with the models usually following. Currently, the models are showing the first real development of a toasty pattern that brings the warmest weather to the Sierra of the year. The models are timing it to build about July 2nd through the 4th of July Holiday Weekend, as the ECMWF has the toasty 594DM Height isohyet into the Eastern Sierra for the 4th of July holiday itself. I would suspect that the heat will continue well into that following week, unless we get an early season TSRW outbreak.
It is at this time within the first 10 days of July that the highest temps over the Eastern Sierra usually occur. Why? Not only is the Sun the highest in the sky, The strongest surface heating/convergence and diffluent thicknesses process is occurring to the SE over the Desert Southwest. A strengthening continental upper high is occurring, while SE flow usually does not really established itself in early July. Thus our air mass is initially stable. With a favorable pattern, temperatures can reach into the upper 80s and sometimes low 90s in Mammoth depending on where the core of the upper high sets up. Thereafter, The Desert Monsoon Season kicks in. Easterly waves forming in the underbelly of the continental high, pushing westward or northwestward, occasional moisture advection and most importantly favorable surface convergence over our elevated heat source can trigger thunderstorms. So while the Cap of an upper high allows heat to build within the air mass, once that cap weakens or shifts east, the lid comes off allowing an outbreak of thunderstorms. Thus the 2nd week of July is most favorable for a heat wave related thunderstorm outbreak pattern over the Eastern Sierra. This is the Climatology of that time here in Mammoth. With that said, that is climatology and what we expect, weather as we well know is what we get. So Thunderstorms may erupt over the July 4th holiday, providing a little of mother natures own fireworks as well.
In the meantime, say good by to Spring today…..1st day of summer arrives Saturday at 3:51AM….. Highs in Mammoth now in the mid 70s jumping to the low 80s by Monday or Tuesday. There is expected to be one more brief pull back in temps going into the following weekend of the 26-28th….Then Mother Nature cranks up the heat…for the July 4th Holiday weekend and beyond…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)
