Friday AM Update:

It will be slightly cooler today over yesterday with at least mid 60s in the forecast for Mammoth Lakes.  The long wave upper high although weaker, will both retrograde westward later today and Saturday then expand into CA from well off shore. This will have the effect of bringing some warming back into Mammoth Saturday. (Upper 60s)   However, with the new long wave ridge further west Sunday and although the heights will be higher Saturday into Sunday, a system moving into the Pacific NW and then Northern Great Basin Saturday night into Sunday with bring cooler air at the surface. A back door style cool front will push through. Surface pressures will build behind the front over the Great Basin for cooling Saturday night and Sunday. This will bring about 10 degrees of cooling Sunday over Saturdays highs. High temps in Mammoth will be near 60 on Sunday. “A Real Fall Day”. Some brief warming will occur Monday after early AM lows drop into the 20s that morning.

Some of the Models now stronger and deeper with the West Coast Trof Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS from the 06z run last night brings the possibility of showers as far south as Mammoth/Yosemite.  The Dweebs will look to see later today if the other models follow and will update Saturday. As mentioned in the headlines……Potential moderate to strong winds may be headed our way Tuesday into Wednesday so do not wait to snap those Fall Foliage photos this weekend…..I understand that the walk around Convict Lake is spectacular!!!

Longer range ECMWF shows another significant Trof beyond the following weekend (21st of October), as the tempo picks up with the Westerlies.  Additionally….I see several systems headed into the west coast through the 25th. The wet season is beginning now for mainly the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA. It is possible that some of those will bring some rain and snow to our high country over the next 3 weeks……It is beginning to happen…..

Climate Models:

Latest NCEP, CFS VS 2  Model for Precip shows close to an inch of precipitation by the end of October for our area and for November up through the 24th about 2+ inches for a total of 3 to 3.5 inches.

So far the ECMWF is pretty dry through the 25 of October…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….