Saturday AM Update:

Its windy and showery over the crest….High Wind Warning Currently in affect thru 7:00PM….No Surprise as the Dweebs have been peddling that idea the past week for today. What this update is all about is the MJO. It is going into Phase III. No matter what the CPC is chattering about over the Indian Ocean, the models are all singing the same tune. The point here is, what good is the MJO signal if one does not make use of it, and in this case, to support a storm track that will affect California by the end of the new week and into the next.

SEE:   http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif

What I am also seeing is a ton of convection over the NINO Basin where SSTA’s are running about +1C in the critical areas.  (IE MODERATE)

 

Saturday Night Update:

All forecast models are trending toward a more significant pattern change by the end of the week with the first in possibly a series of systems beginning about next Saturday or Sunday. They all have it now, however some stronger than others.  I also like the trend….Wet into the following week with several other systems to deal with. It is quite possible that with the MJO forecasted to move through the Indian Ocean and over the Maritime Continent by some models…that will be the harbinger of the pattern shift.

I like what the new 00Z Sunday run of the T1534 GFS is showing. It has developed a lower latitude subtropical jet coming off the Asian Continent with the leading nose at 140E. This upper STJ is going to stretch further east and provide a lot of moisture for the southern branch of the Polar Jet, later the first week of December. There is even the possibility of pineapple or AR connection later that first week of DEC for Central CA.   Additionally, today’s 18Z run of the NCEP CFSv2 showed the % of precipitation as a deviation of normal for the month of December to be 200% for the Mammoth Area.  The Dweebs are looking at all this with a point of excitement…but also with caution…..as when the pattern goes into transition most anything is possible, especially November into December!  In a situation like this transition, I would be mostly concerned that we will transit back to the big west coast ridge like what we have currently. But I believe that this time it is different with the MJO working for us…..

I will update later in the AM Sunday to see what the 00Z Run of the ECMWF Control shows……

The forecast this upcoming week is for mild weather returning Monday and continuing through Thursday with warmer temps….Then more cloudiness as we head into the weekend with the chance of Snow by Saturday or Sunday.

More Later>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  🙂

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In looking at the Hemi Means the past week, in my opinion…..the positive phase of the Scandinavian teleconnection is part of the equation driving the current pattern over the Hemisphere along with the anomalous Snow cover over Eastern Siberia and the anomalous warm waters along the west coast.  In that a lot of the Arctic air was flushed east recently…a temporary opening of the wavelength has allowed a few short waves to move through the west coast. The next and last will actually be more of an over running event expected to bring the pacific NW a lot of Rain Friday and Saturday while we get mostly wind tonight and Saturday. Expect some light accumulation up to a few inches of snow mostly above 8500 feet. The infamous NW jet will drive the next wind event for at least 12 hours and so.  The winds will come up later tonight so batten down those Hot tub tops. It will be quite windy Saturday morning into the afternoon then decrease late in the day Saturday and night.  Behind the thrust of the NW jet is a pretty good-sized upper ridge that will roll in next week for fair weather and milder temps through Thanksgiving day.  Then……Later next week into early December is a pattern change.  The Positive Scandinavian teleconnection breaks down and the pattern goes though transition.   Will the Hemi pattern reset with a western trough?  The Dweebs certainly hope so.

But for the time being…” That is beyond the Event Horizon!”  😉

 

Dr Howard the Dweebs…………………:-)