Thursday Update:

More light showers are possible the next two days as a weak subtropical baggy trof spreads mainly high clouds throughout CA. …..The snow level will range from 6500 to 7,000 Ft.  No significant accumulation expected.  The weekend outlook for Saturday and Sunday shows Gusty Ridge Top winds as an upper ridge builds in. Winds will initially blow out of the NE, then back from the north Sunday. It will be breezy as well over the Valleys of Mono County where there are north/south orientated valleys.  As the upper ridge at 500mb build over CA, temperatures will warm again over the CA State next week.

The REX Block Morphs back to a full latitude ridge over the far west as a Positive PNA pattern strengthens at the same time.   Although the Daily Runs of the various longer range models show phantom systems both approaching and moving through the mean ridge position or in inside slider fashion, they should for the most part be discounted, from bringing any meaningful precipitation to CA. The next transition based upon the 21 day cycle will be more toward the middle of February.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………….:-)

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Although the pattern has changed a bit from earlier in January, showing more of a REX Block, IE A coupled Upper High with an Upper Low to its south, the pattern is still a dry one for the Eastern Sierra. The biggest indice that stands out the most is the super strong positive PDO teleconnection which hit a record high of 2.51 last December. I expect that this teleconnection will prove to be very high again for January. One part of the +PDO is warm water along the west coast. Warm water along the west coast is,  at the least, supporting other teleconnections in keeping an upper ridge extremely strong over the far west. This indice probably has its greatest effect over the Northern Hemisphere during the darkest months, like Mid Nov, through Mid Feb.  I would expect that as the days get longer and the Sun gets higher in the sky, later in February and March that the system of teleconnections that are responsible for the dry pattern over the state will break up as we head toward Spring and Spring itself for at least some badly needed precipitation.

For those that want to read a Paleoclimate study on the Climate of CA, here is a good study and link.  This study does offer an insight to past climate here in the eastern sierra.     http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/bay_delta/deltaflow/docs/exhibits/ccwd/spprt_docs/ccwd_malamud_roam_etal_2006.pdf

In reading through the dissertation, it makes reference to the affects of the little ice age and its effects on the Eastern Sierra. It was noted that during the 17th and 18th century that the Eastern Sierra as well as the Great Basin turned especially cooler and wetter.  As a side note, the Little Ice Age was associated with the Maunder Minimum, in which was a period of time with either very low or none existent Sunspot Activity. This went on for about 80 years.

Coincidently, we are currently going through a solar hibernation according to David Archibald, a solar scientist. As we come off of the double peak over the past few years, it may be that over the next few years, the eastern sierra actually goes through a period of greater moisture and cooling, if sunspots indeed disappear later in the current cycle 24. The Dweebs will give it another 2 to 3 years to see if we turn extra wet again.   This maybe wishful thinking, but it is worth noting!  😉

Forecast:

Expect A chance of showers Thursday thru Friday with little accumulation of new snowfall. Highs in Mammoth will be in the 40s reaching low 50s by this Sunday. Night time lows mostly in the 20s.  Will update weather for the next week this weekend.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)