The CPC this AM gave a nice discussion in regards to the MJO, the Current Kelvin Wave and ENSO:

Here are the important points of interest:

1. A strong kelvin wave is currently out ahead of the position of the MJO’s convective envelope and interacting with the EL Nino Base state. Enhanced tropical convection is occurring south and a bit west of Hawaii near the EQ.

2. MJO is destructively interfering with the ENSO base state, but that will soon change as the convective state shifts east.

3. The Nose of the KV is located about 125west and still adding heat to the Nino Basin.


1. The Convective state of the MJO will shift east to the eastern part of the Maritime continent with tropical storms forming their over the next 7 days. That area will shift east week 2, for the tropical longitudes between Central Micronesia and east to just beyond the Big Island of Hawaii. Expect tropical storms and typhoons to develop in that area during those times. IE north of the EQ moving west.

2. During the later part of week 2 and into week 3 (around the Fourth of July holiday or just beyond the Fourth,  the MJO will constructively interfere with the ENSO state over the Eastern Pacific for an enhanced state for Hurricane’s and tropical storms over the tropical Eastern Pacific, eventually leading to enhance the Southwest Monsoon  early the following week of July 4th.


FROM MONDAY: (Short term WX)

It was a nice break in the heat Sunday as the combination of short wave Trof moving through the CA/OR border and the upper high over the SW shifting east brought in winds and cooling. The strong breezes of Sunday are gone today and 500-1000mb thicknesses have increased. High temps will now continue into the low 80 through Wednesday. The next change occurs between Thursday and Friday as an upper low forms off the Northern Baja coast while a new Continental High forms over the desert SW. The result is channeled flow up from the subtropics.

Over time….The upper continental high becomes negative tilt and both moisture transport as well as upper divergence work together to bring an increasing chance of thunderstorms, beginning as early as Friday, with the odds increasing each day through the weekend and following week.

As per past discussion,  watch the location of the MJO’s convective state in Blue as it moves from the Maritime Continent to the western pacific.   Thereafter, it shifts east toward the dateline then eastern pacific, all in a three-week period.   SEE:

The Core of the Blue is the area with the most intense OLR or the best convection.  That area will, within a week, create upper divergence over the tropical western pacific and  increase chance of tropical storms and possible typhoons over the Western Pacific.  Eventually it will shift to the eastern pacific and do the same.


Temperature forecast:          Tuesday       Wednesday      Thursday       Friday        Sat            Sunday       Monday

Mammoth Lakes:                   49/84              49/84              50/85          51/86       54/87          56/85          55/84

Bishop:                                   54/102           55/102        65/103         69/105     70/108          70/104       72/102