Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for November, 2015
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone from the Dweebs!…..Snow showers likely to continue for the next few days as cyclonic upper flow continues…..Light Accumulation’s Expected………
Thursday November 26, 2015
Saturday 6:30AM
Baby its cold outside…2 degrees! the high today will again be in the low 20s! Low 30s seem more likely for Sunday and low 40s by Tuesday….
It appears that our cold Great Basin Low will hang around one more day before departing Sunday. More Scattered snow showers are possible today with little accumulation. Warming will move back into our region Sunday with a warming trend through mid week before the next storm moves in about Thursday. The next weather system does not look like a major storm at this time, as the way the upper jet is coming in is more North/South orientated. This does not lend itself to extend precipitation very far east beyond the crest. The system may exit rather quickly as well by Friday AM. Nevertheless, the storm may bring a foot or better over the crest to freshen things up…..
El Nino Update:
Southern California must have patience!
The El Nino Effect upon the Jet stream for Southern California usually takes until at least December if not January to begin….
All the Eastern Tropical Pacific displaced heat is there for the atmosphere to do its magic with. So the pattern of storm after storm for Southern California will still likely occur this Winter….. However…it is not winter yet!
One should know that although this current El Nino is possibly peaking….it is likely to remain very strong though at least January…..strong through February and possibly March!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
Friday AM at 8:50 “Snapshot!”
It is 15 degrees…..
Picked up about inch last night.
Cold to hang on through Saturday with highs today Friday near 20…..Tonight 3 degrees. There may be another inch or two of snow by Saturday AM.
It will be warmer next week with highs returning to the 40s by Tuesday and Wednesday…..Next storm will be Thursday Night into Friday Night.
*Best guess at the moment; 3 to 6 in town and 6 to 12 on Mammoth Mt….by Saturday AM
*Confidence is low at this time for this storm….. It will be a warmer system with higher snow levels than what we have currently….
The Dweeber………………………..:-)
Happy Thanksgiving everyone…….Mammoth Mt is reporting 14 to 24 inches of Platinum Powder…..A fabulous Thanksgiving present for powder skier and boarders……
At 18z Thursday (10:00am), cold cyclonic flow aloft is associated with an upper low, centered over NV. Modified Arctic Air is being trapped beneath higher pressure centered NW of Victoria, Canada. This upper ridge has effectively tucked in the cold upper low over NV and CA. The coldest temperatures will arrive Friday night as the ECMWF model has -15C at 700MB and -31C at 500MB over the top of Mammoth Mt. Thus the coldest air mass of this particular pattern will be realized Friday night into early Saturday AM. No doubt more snow showers will develop in the fridged air……
Relief is in sight!
The coldest air with this particular pattern begins to move out Sunday PM and temperatures at 10,000 ft go from -15C to 0C by this coming Wednesday AM. That’s 27F degrees of warming! Daytime highs in Mammoth will return to the 40s, with nighttime temps in the teens and 20s.
Lot’s of folks have been confused about all the cold temps with this El Nino during this season. El Nino Falls and early Winters often set up cold as the Continental Ridge is often in the east; and with no Hudson Bay Vortex over that area. Instead it is displaced ENE over Newfoundland. As the East Asian upper jet continues to strengthen, More and More blocking will develop over Western Canada and AK. The typical Gulf of Alaska Low will be displaced south, north of Hawaii and eventually extend to California. This is the classic -TNH teleconnection pattern associated with strong El Nino winters. That may happen intermittently in December with a few good storms into Southern CA. However by January, the immense power of the East Asian Jet should be unleashed into the central west coast. With periods of storm after storm…. These storm cycles will have much higher snow levels like between 6000ft to 10,000ft at times….Snow to water ratios will often be between 5:1 and 10:1 with some even lower snow to water ratios. The odds for any Platinum Powder is not as likely as early in the snow season. However with that said, the odds for a few, Platinum Powder days will likely return in the early to mid Spring as El Nino continues to fade….. Actually, since the SOI has returned to positive, it is possible that our El Nino has peaked already…..
Outlook (long-range)
Although there is the chance of a few light to moderate storms the first week of December, there appears to be a moderate wet pattern developing during the 2nd week of December….just in time for the Christmas Holiday season….
The CFS v2 shows between 3.5 and 4 inches of water EQ for our area through December 31st. At 10:1 that would be over 3 feet of snow. Cold air over our region retreats the first week of December with above normal temps expected the second week of Dec, followed by below normal temps the 3rd week of Dec.
Of note, the Pacific NW is still the receiver of the heavy rainfall and precipitation for the west coast through year end, indicating that the Classic El Nino forced hemispheric pattern had yet to make it to California by year-end….That according to the CFC v2.
This is just an outlook….not a forecast…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….
Cold Winter Like Storm Now moving into the Sierra with modified Arctic Air and moderate amounts of snowfall expected…..Heaviest snow fall expected between 4:00PM and 10:00PM Tonight…..Cold weather to continue most of the week….
Tuesday November 24, 2015
Wednesday AM Update:
As of 10:10 AM, 6 to 12 inches has fallen on Mammoth Mtn. The snow is light and powdery…. The Dweebs expect snow showers to continue throughout most of the day today for a few more inches.
The cold core upper low was located over NW Nevada this morning and will slide a bit SE today over Central NV by Late afternoon. A highly amplified upper ridge is into the Eastern Gulf of AK and is becoming positive tilt. A short wave coming over the top of that ridge, then SW will cause the upper low over Central NV to shear W/E with a new center developing over Central CA Friday AM, while the old upper center moves east. Thus cold weather will continue over CA with snow showers likely to continue on and off through the weekend. Accumulations will be light in any one period but totals in the upper elevations may add up another 3 to 6 inches by the weekend.
Next week will be much milder as maritime pacific air invades California with highs returning to the 40s by mid-week. Lows are expected in the teens and 20s by that time. The Dweebs do see the possibility of a few weather systems that may bring additional snowfall.
High temperature’s in the Town of Mammoth will be in the low 20s through Saturday with over night lows in the single digits. Winds will not be an issue the rest of this week, just a little breezy at times. However, when coming to Mammoth, bring lots of warm clothes and a neck scarf would be helpful….
Our Village at Mammoth Tree lighting ceremony will be from 3:30pm – 8:00 pm this Friday the 27th of November. It will be traditionally cold that evening with temperatures expected in the low to mid teens at 7:00PM. Although the air will be cold, the lights of the season will warm the heart of all as we kick off the 2015/16 winter season…..
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
A very cold, winter like storm is currently moving into the sierra. The weather system has tapped arctic air from the North-West Territories of Canada. The Freezing level will drop to about 3500 feet by Wednesday AM. Air-Mass temps at 10,000ft are progged to be -14C by Daybreak Wednesday with the air-mass over the following days ranging between -10C and -15C, as after the Modified Arctic Air shifts east a bit, it then retrogrades west by Friday back over CA. the QPF in this storm is not overly impressive at .5 to .75, however because of the high Snow to Water ratios, amounts will range between 12 inches to 15 inches over the crest. The IOP for this storm will be between 00Z Wednesday and 06Z Wednesday or between 4:00pm today and 10:00PM tonight. The good news for traveler’s is that the strongest winds seem to be a bit out of phase with the heaviest snowfall arriving Tonight vs most of the strongest winds being through by early evening……..Nevertheless, travelers should prepare for full on winter conditions by carrying chains, warm cloths and blankets when traveling through the Sierra tonight. Early in the night, there will be white-out conditions possible. It will be a very cold week for this Thanksgiving holiday so dress warmly and take face protection because of Wind Chills.
WX Discussion:
The latest guidance this morning is in excellent agreement with yesterdays WX Charts with the handling of this storm. The Cold Upper low digs south along the west coast today before shifting SE into Nevada early Wednesday AM. Mid level Dynamics and low level upslope/orographics will allow moderate amounts of snowfall (6 to 18) inches to accumulate throughout the Sierra of Southern Mono County.
Specifically in Mono County, 6 to 12 inches west of highway 395 and up to 6 inches east of highway 395 is expected. In the upper elevations ( Sierra Crest where Snow to Water ratios will be the highest), “between” 12 inches and 18 inch’s is possible by Wednesday night…..Storm total. The cold pool retrogrades west over CA again Friday and some convective snow showers may add up to another 3 to 6 inches over the upper elevations next weekend. The WPC product from the national weather service is indicating 72 hour snow totals of over 2 feet over the higher elevations and west side by Thursday Night….
There is a warmer wetter storm early next week possible with snow levels more like 7K
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)
Very Cold Upper Low to descend upon California over the Thanksgiving Holiday…..Snow and Cold are the highlights of the holiday and possibly down to some very low elevations….
Thursday November 19, 2015
Saturday 1:15Pm
Once again the ECMWF has a little more westward track for early this week. So again, the westward extent of the track determines the amount of snow we get. With the amount of ensembles that show a little more west- ward track, there is still time for the models to dig more west for more snowfall for the Tuesday through Wednesday system. So to keep from jaw boning and yo-yoing… will call it a weekend and update Monday AM.
PS…as mentioned below…
There is that possibly of southern stream energy effecting the southern half of California next weekend.. This is something that holiday travelers will need to keep an eye on…
Friday AM:
Your going to hear about this sooner than later, but the pattern for the Thanksgiving weekend may involve some southern stream energy. It was in the 00z Friday ECMWF last night and the Dweebs did not think much of it. However, the GFX has something like it now as well. There are either one or two short waves…one that has more “From” a NW trajectory and the other undercutting the upper ridge in the Gulf of AK. The Dweebs want to see some more runs…. Like a few days worth. This is a pattern that can bring snow to the Owens Valley if it sets up right. Like I mentioned, lots of possibilities, but all a long ways out……
Will Probably comment at some point over this weekend…..
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
The track of this cold core upper low is still down over land Via the Gulf of AK with some minor over water trajectory. No more than light snowfall is expected over Mono county at this time…..between Tuesday and Thursday. The are some very interesting twists to the deterministic ECMWF from the 00z Friday model that I will not get into at this time. I will update Saturday with hopes that there will be more confidence in any particular model or solution. With that said it is going to be very cold all over California and any precipitation that falls later in the week as snow may fall to some surprisingly low levels….Nothing is out of the question including snow down the Owens Valley and anywhere else…. The EC model is struggling this evening with something very unusual……
Your high temperature forecast for Mammoth Wednesday is 23 with an overnight low of 5 Thursday AM
Next update Saturday the 21st………….
The Dweeber………………..:-)
