Wednesday AM Update:

As of 10:10 AM, 6 to 12 inches has fallen on Mammoth Mtn. The snow is light and powdery….  The Dweebs expect snow showers to continue throughout most of the day today for a few more inches.

The cold core upper low was located over NW Nevada this morning and will slide a bit SE today over Central NV by Late afternoon.  A highly amplified upper ridge is into the Eastern Gulf of AK and is becoming positive tilt. A short wave coming over the top of that ridge, then SW will cause the upper low over Central NV to shear W/E with a new center developing over Central CA Friday AM, while the old upper center moves east.  Thus cold weather will continue over CA with snow showers likely to continue on and off through the weekend. Accumulations will be light in any one period but totals in the upper elevations may add up another 3 to 6 inches by the weekend.

Next week will be much milder as maritime pacific air invades California with highs returning to the 40s by mid-week. Lows are expected in the teens and 20s by that time. The Dweebs do see the possibility of a few weather systems that may bring additional snowfall.

High temperature’s in the Town of Mammoth will be in the low 20s through Saturday with over night lows in the single digits.  Winds will not be an issue the rest of this week, just a little breezy at times.  However, when coming to Mammoth, bring lots of warm clothes and a neck scarf would be helpful….

Our Village at Mammoth Tree lighting ceremony will be from 3:30pm – 8:00 pm this Friday the 27th of November.   It will be traditionally cold that evening with temperatures expected in the low to mid teens at 7:00PM. Although the air will be cold, the lights of the season will warm the heart of all as we kick off the 2015/16 winter season…..

 

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A very cold, winter like storm is currently moving into the sierra. The weather system has tapped arctic air from the North-West Territories of Canada. The Freezing level will drop to about 3500 feet by Wednesday AM. Air-Mass temps at 10,000ft are progged to be -14C by Daybreak Wednesday with the air-mass over the following days ranging between -10C and -15C, as after the Modified Arctic Air shifts east a bit, it then retrogrades west by Friday back over CA.  the QPF in this storm is not overly impressive at .5 to .75, however because of the high Snow to Water ratios, amounts will range between 12 inches to 15 inches over the crest.  The IOP for this storm will be between 00Z Wednesday and 06Z Wednesday or between 4:00pm today and 10:00PM tonight.  The good news for traveler’s is that the strongest winds seem to be a bit out of phase with the heaviest snowfall arriving Tonight vs most of the strongest winds being through by early evening……..Nevertheless, travelers should prepare for full on winter conditions by carrying chains, warm cloths and blankets when traveling through the Sierra tonight. Early in the night, there will be white-out conditions possible. It will be a very cold week for this Thanksgiving holiday so dress warmly and take face protection because of Wind Chills.

 

WX Discussion:

The latest guidance this morning is in excellent agreement with yesterdays WX Charts with the handling of this storm. The Cold Upper low digs south along the west coast today before shifting SE into Nevada early Wednesday AM. Mid level Dynamics and low level upslope/orographics will allow moderate amounts of snowfall (6 to 18) inches to accumulate throughout the Sierra of Southern Mono County.

Specifically in Mono County, 6 to 12 inches west of highway 395 and up to 6 inches east of highway 395  is expected. In the upper elevations ( Sierra Crest where Snow to Water ratios will be the highest),  “between” 12 inches and 18 inch’s is possible by Wednesday night…..Storm total.    The cold pool retrogrades west over CA again Friday and some convective snow showers may add up to another 3 to 6 inches over the upper elevations next weekend.  The WPC product from the national weather service is indicating 72 hour snow totals of over 2 feet over the higher elevations and west side by Thursday Night….

There is a warmer wetter storm early next week possible with snow levels more like 7K

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)