Saturday PM:

Monday’s weak storm is expected to bring 1 to 3 inches with possibly another inch or so blown in up in saddle bowl.

Once again the snow to water ratios will be high….

 

Saturday AM:

Although we have another small system that may bring a few more inches to the high country Monday, the focus now becomes the upcoming MJO induced +PNA pattern and the evolution of the break through or REX block under the +PNA itself.  This is expected about end of the 1st week of January or just beyond….    The various runs of the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are quite fascinating now, and over the next 10 days the excitement will build for California as the actual ENSO induced pattern is expected to bring welcome relief to Southern CA as well as most of CA after four years of drought…..

The Dweebs right here will be in the Club Seats….giving you all, play by play explanation’s, as the tempo builds and the Mid Latitude and Southern Stream evolves…..

 

The Dweeber……………………………:-)

 

Christmas Day Morning:

Fabulous Snow….The Dweebs can hear the hooten and Hollering from Mammoth Mt to the Village…

14 to 30 inches of the lightest Platinum Powder fell yesterday and last night…And very much as good as the Rockies like to brag about!

Today is the day to make some turns…..

The forecast indicates some snow shower action this afternoon as a small vort center drops south…. Then a bit of a warm up Saturday into Sunday before a weakening system brings a few more inches on Monday…….

As we work though the Yuletide season and the end of the year….we begin to feel the effects weatherwise, of the strong MJO over the Maritime Continent.  The convective envelop is so strong that the SOI has gone strongly positive (+30) indicating anomalous convection north of Australia and the Maritime continent….This will be temporary however, as the interseasonal wave continues east over the next 2 to 3 weeks….and then the SOI is likely to return negative with vengeance!

Through the Process:

  1. The (-PNA) pattern will become Positive (+PNA)
  2. This happens as the East Asian Jet retreats as the peddle come off the Upper Jet across the pacific and the west coast ridges up strongly.
  3. This will give us a glorious New Year’s over the far west with above normal temps over the upper elevations and gorgeous weather over Southern CA with highs in the 80s into the first week of January…
    a. Strong inversions will likely develop over Mono County with Pogonip ice fog around New Years Day or shortly after around Lee Vining, Mono City as well as around Lake Crowley
    b. In the eastern half of the country, winter will finally arrive from the Great Lakes to New England. The Strong Subtropical jet will likely keep a lot of the colder air confined to the northern sections.
  4. During the first week of January, most of the height rises will concentrate over Western Canada between BC and the Northern Rockies while California continues its fair-weather trend.
  5. Then the Magic of El Nino will likely develop for California during Week 2 of January.
    a. With the +PNA pattern well established over Western Canada, and as the MJO remains strong into Phase 8….MJOs convective envelope shifts well through the Western Pacific as the East Asian Jet gets the peddle to the Meddle…
    b. The upper jet reaches through the Eastern Pacific “about” the early part of the 2nd week of January as short wave systems are now forced east under the Western Canadian block into Central and Southern CA .
    C. This is what Angeleno’s have been waiting for…..

Happy Holidays…………………………From the Dweeber!! 🙂