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Archive for January, 2016
Snowfall to Continue Today and Tonight for the Eastern Sierra, Mono County and the Owens Valley…. Winter Storm Warning is in effect thru 4:00AM Monday….
Sunday January 31, 2016
6:00PM Sunday
Platinum Powder Alert for Tonight for snowfall Ratios 18:1 with up to a Foot on Mammoth Mtn over night…..Tonopah Low to remain stationary through 2:00AM Monday morning before ejecting NE toward Utah….Snowfall rates 1 to 2 inches an hour tonight…
Storm total on Mammoth Mtn 3 to 5 feet by Morning…..
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4:00PM Update
A Blizzard Warning is in effect for Mono County tonight for strong “Northerly Flow”. Mammoth is protected from strong Northerly Flow. The Dweebs expected gusts to 30 MPH tonight in town. However, areas along the highway 395 corridor and east will have gusts to 50 mph with white-out conditions developing over night. Travel along Highway 395 will become quite dangerous tonight heading North/South.
At the moment, we have a break in the snowfall. However, snowfall rates will pick up again tonight as upper flow responds to a deepening Tonopah Low over Nevada.
Winds/Snowfall:
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. VISIBILITY DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR… DO NOT TRAVEL TONIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR……
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOUT ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AM.
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This has been one complex storm system with just about everything a Dweeb could ask for.
- An Atmospheric River
- A Wave on the front
- A Quasi Tonopah Low
- And now a Deformation Zone that has recently become more north-south orientated…Instead of east-west…
The Dweebs have commented about the possibility of snow in the Owens Valley from this pattern and snow began falling at 7:00am in Bishop… Snowfall in Bishop on the valley floor is one of the more challenging aspects of forecasting in that area.
Now to address the current situation….
Forecasts up to this point were based upon more of the storm associated with the wave moving on shore over Southern CA. This is pretty much a windless pattern for our area, at least for the lower elevations here in Mammoth. This is a pattern absent from any orographic’s. So snowfall amounts will not be very much if any different from what Mammoth Mt gets today and tonight.
Now with the deformation axis rotating to a more North-South Axis, moderate to possibly heavy snow at times can develop along that axis through at least noon today with lesser amounts later today and tonight. A Tonopah low is most likely involved some how in the orientation of this development. What this also means is that areas that are usually shadowed out from a lot of snow or rainfall will get it this morning and into the evening. This includes the Owens Valley and Western Nevada. The upper flow now is South to North right up the Sierra and the Owens Valley today. Forecast models suggest any ware from 2 to 4 inches on the valley floor and up to 8 inches within elevations 500 feet above the valley floor though tonight. The main point here is that if you are traveling south today, best to get an earlier start as it may be a longer trip home….Carry Tire Chains….
For Mammoth Lakes we are expecting another 6 to 12 inches…Between the Town and to the top of Mammoth Mountain by Monday AM.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)
Winter Storm Warning Hoisted for Mono County beginning at 4:00PM Friday to 4:00PM Saturday….Storm to possibly last through Sunday night….
Thursday January 28, 2016
Friday AM; Brief update shows the snow level remaining at and above 9K today and tonight with accumulating snow after midnight tonight in the Town of Mammoth.
Totals of 1 to 2 feet in the residential areas of town by Sunday night and 2 to 3+ feet on Mammoth Mt by Monday AM
PS; it is possible that the lowering for the snow level will not occur until toward 4:00AM Saturday. This is the most difficult part of the snowfall forecast for this storm for the town. Remember that the QPF is independent of how fast the freezing comes down. The quicker the freezing comes down the more snow in town, the slower the less snow in town.
As an example, the CRFC has a QPF to the west of Mammoth of aprox .40 between 4:00AM today Friday and 10:00PM Tonight. Then .75 between 10:00PM tonight and 4:00AM Saturday AM. for a total of 1.15 inches. Even at 6:1 that’s about 5.5 to 6 inches of snow…..
Prin. point is, any delay in the lowing for the freezing level will been less snow in the town of Mammoth. But do not worry……There will still be plenty!
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Although the High Wind Watch has been canceled, Wind Advisories are in affect beginning 4:00AM Friday morning through 4:00PM Friday afternoon. Strong West winds of 30 to 60 MPH are possibly Friday afternoon Throughout the lower slopes of Mono County.
Winter storm warnings are hoisted for Mono County beginning Friday at 4:00Pm then through 4:00PM Saturday. Expect heavy snowfall Saturday Morning and afternoon.. Additional accumulation’s are expected through Sunday night.
Although the heaviest snowfall is expected Saturday, snowfall totals have been increased up to 2 feet at 8000 feet by Sunday night with 2 to 3 feet or more possibly over the upper elevations…..
Precipitation is likely to begin toward 4:00Am Friday with rain or rain snow mix at elevations below 9000 feet. Colder temperatures will gradually move in later Friday turning the rain at the lower elevations to snow from Northern Mono county late in the afternoon to Southern Mono County Friday Night.
Temperature Forecast: Friday Saturday Sunday Monday
Village At Mammoth 46/33 36/23 28/13 27/13
McCoy Station 38/27 27/19 19/08 20/10
Atmospheric River now Showing up off shore…Moisture to really increase Friday ahead of Heavy Snowfall Saturday AM…..
Thursday January 28, 2016
High Wind watches have been hoisted by the NWS for Friday and Friday Night as the nose of a 170 Knot upper jet makes its way east into the Sierra. Snow levels will begin high as the Freezing level reaches 10K Friday. The snow level will likely be about 9,000 Friday/Night then gradually lower late in the evening toward 8K by Midnight. Outside of wind and rain, no travel problems are expected Friday evening due to snow along the highway 395 corridor south through Inyo County…… With that said, winds will likely be an issue for high profile vehicles Coming up the Owens Valley Friday afternoon and especially Friday night…..Down Sloping winds are expected, 35 to 50 MPH with gusts over 70 MPH possible.
Rain/Snow Mix in town will switch to snow around midnight and will be all Snow at resort levels by Sunrise Saturday with the snow level down to 6000 feet during the afternoon and even lower that night. Eventually the snow level will fall to the valley floor of the Owners valley by Sunday night, however most of the storm will be over by then…
Snowfall amounts will be tricky in Mammoth as part of the storm will be either rain or rain snow mix. Odds are good that at least a foot will fall in the upper elevations or west of the village and 2 to 3 feet over the crest by Sunday night.
