Tuesday AM Update:

Only comments to the forecast is in the outlook. The Dweebs had a look at the reanalysis charts and focused on February of 1951 in which a similar upper ridge developed for a week, bringing record high temps to many areas of CA.  The Record for Bishop is 78 degree for the 10th of February in that year. I think that it is likely that Bishop will break into the 70s early next week for the first time this year.  Mammoth in the upper 50s is possible.

To our west, Super Sunday will be in the process of a rapid warm up along the coast with 1000/500mb thickness expected well into the mid to high 560’s DM by Monday and Tuesday. Some areas in the SE Bay Area may break into the low 80s early next week with SFO possibly breaking 70 by Monday or Tuesday next week.

The February thaw will last about a week with a change back to an active pattern, around or shortly after mid-month. That is due to the southern stream, as it resumes its promise in keeping the western hemispheric pattern progressive this winter. (See Comments below, (Regarding the MJO)


It continues to be cold in Mammoth with the high temperature yesterday 18 degrees at the FS office, then an overnight low of -7 this morning.   Today it will warm to the mid 20s!  For those that are uncomfortable with temps this cold, the weekend will be much milder with highs in the mid to upper 40s Saturday and lower 50s Sunday and Monday.  It should be an epic weekend with little in the way of any wind except over the crest with NE flow. Lows at night will be in the 20s.


Forecast Discussion:

Upper heights will rise in response to the existing trough over the inter mountain west exiting. An inside slider, or “impulse on the storm track” will move through today bringing snow showers and breezy weather over the upper elevations.  The upper west coast ridge begins to build Wednesday. However another weakening system comes through and spreads mainly warm air advection over our region for another chance of snow showers Wednesday night.  The Dweebs are not expecting much more than a trace of to an inch of snow from either system.

The Big picture indicates that an omega block will develop with the focus of the west coast ridge parked over CA Sunday and over the Great Basin into early next week. The brings cold weather to the SE CONUS as short waves drop out of the upper Midwest early next week and plummet south to the South East. In fact the northern or central part of the state of Florida may have a significant freeze.  This looks to happen about the 10th through 12th of Feb..  Will another Nor Easter spin up later next week around the 8th-9th?….Will see.

Last time it did we got a storm 10 days later……


According to the EURO, the MJO is forecasted to become quite strong again emerging over the western portion of the Maritime Continent and strengthening over the Eastern Maritime continent with further strengthening over the Western Pacific, late week 2. The positive phase of the PNA should either block or weaken storms approaching California Through at least next week. The ECMWF did an excellent job with the last MJO rotation through the phase spaces. So the Dweebs are bullish that it will work out well again.

Here is the trend;

  1. Weak MJO (Tropical Forcing) Emerges this week in Phase 4 through the 8th of Feb.  (Ridge building along the west coast with the establishment of the Omega Block by this Sunday/Monday)
  2. Strengthening occurs in phase space 5 and 6  and remains strong into phase 7.
  3. Toward the end of week 3, the ECMWF has the MJO forecasted to move from early into phase space 7 then into 8. That is when the return of the true El Nino forcing is expected. Mark your calendar for the week ending toward the 18th of February through the first of March.   This looks to be a very active 2 week period. It do hope it includes Southern CA as well.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)