Saturday AM:

Clearing skies were in process this morning and temperatures were running a few degrees cooler. North winds will be on the increase later in the weekend and into early next week as the west coast upper ridge redevelops over the far eastern pacific and builds over California Monday into Tuesday.  As the Dweebs have said many times before, the Town of Mammoth is protected from moderate to strong North Winds because of the Topography. The Sierra Crest and north-south valleys are the exception where north winds can rip through Mono County south thru the Owens Valley.  This looks to be a light to moderate north wind event for later Sunday and Monday.  Holiday Travelers’ heading south down the Owens Valley Monday should get excellent gas mileage with tail wind gusts to 40 mph.

MJO:  Although we have a moderate storm for Wednesday and Thursday, the Dweebs main attention is on the inter-seasonal outlook for the end of the month and 1st week or two of March.  Some things are beginning to happen that are showing support to the MJO on the move.  This morning, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) went negative at -14.17.

 

SEE:  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/index.php

 

This index represents the gradient between Darwin over North Australia and Tahiti. When it is negative the winds are moving from west to east near the Equator in the southern Hemisphere.

In order for that to happen during an EL Nino you need to have convergence aloft or a general sinking motion in the Troposphere. It just so happens that the MJO as it leaves the Maritime continent north of AU, has sinking motion (Upper Convergence) in it rear.  This gives notion that the MJO is progressive and now moving into phase space 6.

SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

I expect the SOI to continue crashing over several days to come.

The border of Phase Space 7 and 8 is near the dateline and where the MJO, should it remain strong, will constructively interfere with El Nino. It will weaken as it moves towards an area south of the Hawaiian Islands in Phase 8.  By the end of February, the MJO should be very near phase 7/8. This location often times forces the extension of the East Asian Upper Jet to the west coast.

Stay Tuned

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)