After a string of very warm days with temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees above normal, during the month of June, the forecast models are trending toward a much cooler month of July associated with west coast troughing in the mean. This will create a trend of breezier than normal afternoons and evenings along with high temperatures mostly in the 70s and even some 60s possible. Additionally, there will be much fewer days at and above 80 according to the guidance. This is opposed to what we had during the month of June where highs were mostly in the 80s the second half of the month.  The trough in the mean also spells the likelihood of a much weaker monsoon season which would be good from the standpoint for less lightning strikes.  Typically we get more high based thunderstorm’s here, carrying the threat for more lighting than heavy rain in July.

On the flip side, the negative here is that if this pattern actually does set up, the frequency of critical fire danger episodes would greatly increase, as short wave energy within the troughs bring a greatly enhanced zephyr, (west wind) along with strong winds for summer aloft. Furthermore, shots of very dry air from the west would likely accompany the strong gusty winds.  This is what I see based upon the current extended guidance, beginning the second half of this week. The west coast trough that is forecasted by the both GFS and ECMWF is definitely anomalous for the month of July!

Now for some encouraging news…

I have been told by one well seasoned Meteorologist from WSFO Reno that is now retired, that persistent Troughing in the Summer is linked to wetter winters here. Does this mean that the winter of 2016/2017 will be a wet one? No….it just means that from a troughy previous summer, that the incidence of wetter than normal winters are higher the following year.   However, just like the big El Nino forecast for a big winter in Southern CA last year that was a bust,  there are no guarantees.

One other item worth mentioning…  I do not know if any of you have been keeping up with solar news. The Sun has been recording several spotless days since early June.  We are rapidly headed toward another solar minimum.   There is also a link between wetter CA winters and solar minimums.


The Dweeber………………….:-)