The weather pattern over the far west was anything but normal the past few days with 100 MPH winds over the top of Mammoth Mt Sunday AM with a rather chilly Monday morning. There were several reporting RAWS sites with 32 degrees this morning. Crestview…Bridgeport and Ellery Lake. The anomalous weather is due to the combination of an active western pacific with tropical storms amplifying the down stream pattern and a strongly negative WPO teleconnection that is currently off the chart from a standard deviation of normal. It would be very interesting to see this pattern in the Fall (September-October) here in the Eastern Sierra!

Today begins a warm up that will continue into the beginning of the weekend then cooler breezy weather returning by Saturday PM into Sunday.  Expect high temps in the low 70s today then low 80s by Mid-Week. Winds will be light.

One of the big factors in the new pattern is that the Continental high is both either weaker and flatter over the desert southwest or displaced well east at times. This is due to the anomalously strong -WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation) and an anomalously strong trof off the coast of the pacific NW. This for the most part, is cheating the Pacific NW of Summer and the Sierra of the Summertime Monsoon.  I believe that the MJO is partially responsible for all this, along with an increase of anomalous warm water developing over the tropical western pacific.  The strengthening trades and a positive ONI are all working together toward LA Nina…..

Another thought is the very low solar (lack of sunspots) that is coincidently occurring at the same time as the solar cycle races toward the solar minimum. As mentioned in a previous post, The few years leading up to and after the solar minimum seem to be cooler and wetter further south down the west coast. So…. It may be that over the next 5 to 7 years we may have more normal to wet winters than dry ones….


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-_)