Archive for October, 2016

Storm # 2 Leaves elevations below 8K pretty much snowless….Next system to bring a few snow showers Tuesday AM….Then a long break ahead….

Monday AM:

Storm Total for the Village at Mammoth 1.73 inches….This morning there is between 1 and 2 inches on the deck at the 8200 foot level.  What is outstanding is the total rain/snowfall in inches here at

A whopping 8.02 for the month of October!  The Dweebs do not recall that much precipitation occurring during the month of October….  As a note…this moisture has been mostly subtropical in origin…

There is a small system that will brush through late tonight and into the morning hours for Tuesday bringing some snow showers. Amounts should be no more than an inch or so…


The simple answer to the question “what happened to all the snow” is that the cold air was delayed and most if not all of the precip was in the warm sector….Mammoth Weather picked up 1.73 inches of water so far. 99% of it was rain or rain/snow mix.   The good news is that Mammoth Mt as of 10:36 pm has picked up 2.34 inches of water so far.  That means that elevations above 10K has between 18 nd 24 inches of fresh snow.  The next system is favoring Northern CA.  The Dweebs expect some snow showers Tuesday morning…..then a break in the storms though at least next Friday.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

Storm 1 is winding down…Storm 2 to arrive Early Sunday Morning….

Some nice precip totals so far. At the Village at Mammoth 2.13 inches of rain so far has fallen. 2.78 on Mammoth Mt.


The wet short wave has now passed into Nevada and improving weather is expected until Saturday night when a colder system arrives with Snow expected in town.  Storm number 3 if you want to call it that is pretty whimpy. Only expecting a dusting Tuesday morning….

Tioga Pass did close this afternoon. It is not known if they will reopen again before they close for the season Saturday afternoon for the next storm… PS I hope it reopens as the Dweebs have to travel to Fresno Saturday….or it will be “Take the Long Way Home”  Faav Supertramp.


The Dweebs do see another weak system Monday night and then a long long break before the next series of storms arrive….


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

Big Wet Storm in process with lots of rain Tonight and Friday…..Big PWAT Plume pointed at Mammoth…Snow in the Town of Mammoth Sunday/Night…

Storm 1. Just like I said….Models do not handle Subtropical moisture very well. Most of the models had the bulk of the precipitation further north of Mammoth but they have been back peddling south the past two days.  500MB 567DM upper low is west of Pt Conception with both subtropical and weak southern branch of the polar coupled well west of the coast.  Seymour has been down graded to TS and is still pumping a lot of heat into the system thus doing the job of Jet stream enhancement. PWAT plume of 1.7 to nearly 2.00 off the South Central CA coast with the trajectory into the Central Sierra. This is +5 to +6 Sigma as far as the anomaly.Thunderstorms a good possibility over the southern and central San Joaquin Valley and into the sierra tonight.

No doubt the QPF Bull’s-eye is over the central sierra on this 1st storm. Get ready for some heavy rain later tonight and possible thunder. Heavy rain will occur after midnight tonight as well into Friday morning.  Again this is not and I repeat not an AR event, no matter what the Colloquia’s want to say. This PW plume is wider than long. AR events are fairly narrow rivers of high PWAT that stretch thousands of miles usually West to East or SW to NE.  This one is an inverted V. PWAT is not the only definition for an AR.


Storm 2. Sundays storm will drop 12 to 18 inches over the crest and possibly 4 to 7 in the Towns of Mammoth and June.

Storm #3 is minor with lights amounts. “Monday Night” (A trace to an inch)


October 2016 is on the threshold of record rainfall here in the Central Sierra.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)