Archive for November, 2016

In accordance with my last weather letter and Dweeb update, the WX pattern by both models have turned decisively progressive. This means that the weather is moving quickly from the eastern pacific across the CONUS; (contiguous united states) and pausing from the Gulf of Ak to deepen down the west coast. As an example, the storm that was supposed to drop down over the Nevada and spin up over CA, will now move quickly and spin up somewhere between the Sea of Cortez and the desert southwest. Then shortly after, it will be whisked away by the westerlies.  A pattern like this favors northwest or inside sliders. It is a mostly dry pattern for Eastern CA and one that is highlighted by occasional snow showers, colder than normal temps and periods of wind.  Thus we will not get us a decent storm anytime soon…   In looking at the MJO RIMM phase space, it is going into the circle of death. This means that there will be no tropical forcing for sometime to come.  So the word is, enjoy the great snow that we have, and as soon as the pattern changes, well give you all a heads up in my news letter 1st.

Sea Surface temperatures:

As compared to the past several years, the key warm SSTA, is in the Bearing Sea now. As with most anomalously warm SST pools over the north pacific, this is where you will find the predominance of upper high pressure or anomalous upper heights. Underneath this warm water pool the WX is often times quiet. The subject pool becomes a key quasi thermal anchor or what ever is driving the warmth, will begin to dominate the pattern over the eastern pacific. The Dweebs expect a blocking pattern to develop over or near the Bering Sea during Week 2 or 3. Once it develops, the models will latch on to it and have better visibility of the next series of storms and their trajectory.  In the meantime, expect ciaos in the models without a good bias one way or another…. (lots of phantom storms with shifting dates)  As a note, it has been forecasted over the fall and summer that there will be a reemergence of the RRR “Ridicules Resilient Ridge” over the far north eastern pacific near the BC, Canadian Coast.  So far, this prognostication has not developed and may not this winter. The latest CFS prediction is for the pool to remain in the current area all winter. This means that the majority of all winter forecasts by the “Experts” will be wrong! So Southern CA, you may have it your way after all with at least a normal winter or even a wet one.  The position of the warm water in the Bering Sea would deliver more of the Split systems like this Fall at times, that does well for Southern CA!  Also the current SST setup suggests possible AR events for the west coast later in the Winter. (Warm Wet Storms)

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………..:-)

5:30PM

Split flow taking its toll but active area to our west still expected to move east……North/South orientated Precip band is from about June Lake north with a fairly active area over Madera to the west. We may still get a few inches out of it so hold on….  As mentioned in earlier post…Split flow patterns are difficult to forecast……..

Next system is expected for Wednesday…although it is not splitting it is going to be mostly to our north.

More in letter issued later…

The Dweeber………………:-)

Sunday 1:25PM

Our splitting system still on the way and taking its good sweet time. Snow fall should begin about 6:00PM with very light amounts.  Thereafter, precip rates will pick up later this evening….  Amounts should be in the 4 to 8 inches class over the upper elevations with 2 to 4 in town by morning…

Next system Monday…..

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Fellow Dweebs, Dr Howard just had a total knee replacement Thursday AM so please pardon me if I do not share the current developing patterns enthusiasm as often as I would like to. With that said, the weather letter will always be on time with the help of Cyber K.

Looking at the ECMWF Ensembles, both Control and Ens Mean, it is evident that our current split flow pattern will consolidate toward the end of the month with a couple of good storms between about thanksgiving and Dec 1st.  There are timing issues of course this far out so I will not speculate on when the storms may arrive later next week, just that the long adjustment wave over the Eastern Pacific is coming into CA.  Also, as we go into December, the upper jet will become more NW orientated and so some of the storms will have lots of wind with them month end, into Dec. The best system in the series may be around Dec 4th.

The most current pressing system time wise is going to work out pretty week as the split comes in much later than earlier forecasted. This delay in split will allow some moderate snowfall to work into the Mammoth, Sunday morning through Sunday evening. This is not a cold storm. But will allow the snow levels to fall to 7000 feet during the latter half of the storm, then as low as 6000 feet about the time when the precip will be most over.  For the Snowplowers, and the guys itched to get out there, this looks like a late afternoon or evening plow when the storm is pretty much wrapped up. The upper mountain may get between 12 and 15 inches with the latter reserved for the very upper mountain as I see it. More may fall but as you know, split flow systems are sometimes the most difficult to forecast amounts…..The Town of Mammoth may get up to 6 inches at the village.  The next storm looks to be about Wednesday….more later.

I wanted to reiterate to all that the forecast of the change of pattern was picked up the latter part of October by the MJO phase space, and that is impressive from an inter seasonal point of view.