In accordance with my last weather letter and Dweeb update, the WX pattern by both models have turned decisively progressive. This means that the weather is moving quickly from the eastern pacific across the CONUS; (contiguous united states) and pausing from the Gulf of Ak to deepen down the west coast. As an example, the storm that was supposed to drop down over the Nevada and spin up over CA, will now move quickly and spin up somewhere between the Sea of Cortez and the desert southwest. Then shortly after, it will be whisked away by the westerlies.  A pattern like this favors northwest or inside sliders. It is a mostly dry pattern for Eastern CA and one that is highlighted by occasional snow showers, colder than normal temps and periods of wind.  Thus we will not get us a decent storm anytime soon…   In looking at the MJO RIMM phase space, it is going into the circle of death. This means that there will be no tropical forcing for sometime to come.  So the word is, enjoy the great snow that we have, and as soon as the pattern changes, well give you all a heads up in my news letter 1st.

Sea Surface temperatures:

As compared to the past several years, the key warm SSTA, is in the Bearing Sea now. As with most anomalously warm SST pools over the north pacific, this is where you will find the predominance of upper high pressure or anomalous upper heights. Underneath this warm water pool the WX is often times quiet. The subject pool becomes a key quasi thermal anchor or what ever is driving the warmth, will begin to dominate the pattern over the eastern pacific. The Dweebs expect a blocking pattern to develop over or near the Bering Sea during Week 2 or 3. Once it develops, the models will latch on to it and have better visibility of the next series of storms and their trajectory.  In the meantime, expect ciaos in the models without a good bias one way or another…. (lots of phantom storms with shifting dates)  As a note, it has been forecasted over the fall and summer that there will be a reemergence of the RRR “Ridicules Resilient Ridge” over the far north eastern pacific near the BC, Canadian Coast.  So far, this prognostication has not developed and may not this winter. The latest CFS prediction is for the pool to remain in the current area all winter. This means that the majority of all winter forecasts by the “Experts” will be wrong! So Southern CA, you may have it your way after all with at least a normal winter or even a wet one.  The position of the warm water in the Bering Sea would deliver more of the Split systems like this Fall at times, that does well for Southern CA!  Also the current SST setup suggests possible AR events for the west coast later in the Winter. (Warm Wet Storms)


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………..:-)