Wednesday AM:

Small Adjustment in the QPF this Am with adjustments in the timing as well.

Expect snow to begin falling between 7:00AM and 8:00AM with a heavier snowfall rates after 10:00AM Friday. A winter storm Watch goes into effect at 10:00AM Friday. Heavy snow is expected with rapidly falling temps Friday afternoon into Friday Night.

Expect about (1) foot+ of snow in the Town of Mammoth,  with upwards to two feet on Mammoth Mountain by Saturday afternoon.  The snow level will begin at 7500 Friday AM,  and will fall rapidly during the afternoon to the Mono County valley floor.

 

Christmas Day will be partly cloudy, dry and cold with highs in the upper 20s.

 

Full discussion Tomorrow AM in Weather Letter….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

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The Dweebs wait is over as you can not continue to disagree with recent model trends the past few days, especially when you are closing in to that magic 72 hour window from the event. Although the western hemispheric progressive pattern continues without any real high latitude blocking and both AO and NAO is positive, the eastern pacific ridge is situated in the perfect spot for a wave train of short waves, (Storms)  to dig into CA with each showing quite a significant upper jet on back side to get the “Dig Done”.

As an added comment, I have to say that this is a winter in the making that we in California have been waiting for a long time. It has the potential to put a big dent in our drought here in Central CA.  Personally, I have reason to believe that there is a correlation between the coming solar minimum and a wetter west. The Sun is in hibernation mode now with little Sunspot action and some scientists are of the belief that the next 5 years are going to be very interesting weather wise…..Wetter in California!

Upcoming storm series:  ( These are all cold storms)

  1. The Friday night system to begin during Friday evening and be over with before Christmas Day. Forecast for Mammoth; All Snow top to bottom.   12 to 18 inches in town and 18 to 24 on the Mountain. Probabilities 80%
  2. The will be a break Christmas Day with next storm moving in Christmas Day Night. Moderate intensity with amounts about 6 to 12 in town and between 12 to 18+ on the mountain.
  3. Third Storm near New Years Eve.

Longer Range:

 

MJO Rimm showing amplification in Phase spaces 8/1 in both JMAN and GFS, but not In ECMWF. So why is the European models not picking up on the tropical convection near the Dateline next week?  The hopefully the CPC will highlight this in their discussion today.

As a comment, the fact that the JMAN (Japanese model and GFS are consistent with the return of MJO or at least a Kelvin Wave in this region enhancing tropical convection is worth considering from the stand point of a return to a blocking pattern with either the negative phase of the EPO or WPO. This would increase confidence for a return to a similar pattern in December that brought a lot of rain to Northern CA. However in January, that may end up being a bit stronger and possibly colder.  The pattern is highlighted by a split flow out over the central pacific, another active Kona Low; a strong positive height anomaly near the Bering Sea or Aleutian’s.

Tuesday PM Update:  The CPC has indicated that the incursion into Phase space 8/1 is due to a Kelvin Wave and is not MJO. So no major blocking expected to MJO.

 

More later in my Letter Wednesday Night for Thursday AM.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)