Saturday morning….

 

Strongest winds have verified further north with Upper Jet the same.  Although the stronger upper jet has yet to enter CA and is is still on tap for Sunday, the NWS has seen fit to keep winds in Mono County at advisories levels. Plenty of rain is still on the way for Tonight and Sunday…

 

Friday AM Update:

 

High Wind Watch hoisted to begin 2:00PM Saturday through 5:00PM Sunday…This looks likely to be the windiest period for Southern Mono County

High Wind Watch in effect from October 15, 02:00 PM PDT until October 16, 05:00 PM PDT

 

WX Discussion:

A deep upper low continues to sit off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning with a strong ~150 to 160 kt upper jet driving moisture from post typhoon Songa into Northern CA. Already some reporting sites on the north coast show over 6.00 inches of rain. This wet fetch should sag southward today with an associated front that will stall out near Fresno, CA tonight. The strong westerly flow, and slow southward movement looks likely to hold off any significant precipitation for mammoth until either late this afternoon or evening. Freezing levels will be high near 11K to 12K and so snow levels for this event will be mostly above 10,000 feet.

Precipitation amounts should range from 1/3rd to 2/3s of an inch by Saturday morning as the first wet swath passes thorough.  Saturday morning looks less likely to have major winds as we are “in-between short waves”. The next wetter AR rolls in later Saturday afternoon with stronger winds as compared to Today. The upper jet will come in just north of Tahoe instead of over Oregon this morning. Precipitation amounts will ramp up beginning Saturday afternoon and heavier precipitation is expected Sunday as the main jet core from the pacific comes in. That jet is forecasted to be 180 knots at 250MB well off the west coast!  WOW for mid October. The track on the new 12z GFS has the axis over RENO Sunday mid morning. It begins to lift north by Sunday PM on this particular model which goes against last nights thinking of it lifting north Monday. This argues against any dusting Monday AM in our town. This 2nd AR is expected to drop between 1 and 2 inches of Precip by Monday AM for our area.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday PM:

Main headline is for the possibility for periods of Damaging Winds, beginning Friday into to Sunday night. The way the Dweebs see it, in that the upper jet axis never really gets into Southern Mono County this weekend, this storm is mostly about wind and rain.  With each incoming Jet Let, we will be in the front right exit region of the upper jet.  Any snowfall below 9000 to 10000 feet will be brief and light over the mountains of Southern Mono County, early to mid Monday morning.

The QPF for the Models over Mammoth Mt are around .50 to .70 Friday afternoon through Friday night. (Freezing level is about 12K)  Another system will bring about an inch of rain Between Sunday night and Monday mid morning. The Freezing level begins about 11,000 Sunday night and drops to 9500 by Mid Morning Monday.

Note; the snow level is usually between 1000 and 1500 feet below the freezing level.

Back to wind:

According to the models, there appears to be several windy periods over the weekend.

The first one is stronger from Tahoe north after midnight tonight into Friday AM.   The 2nd connected jet-let drops to the Oregon/CA border by about noon Friday. That looks much windier for us than the first  jet-let tonight over OR.

By Saturday morning the nose of 180knott upper jet punches into the Bay Area. This particular Upper Jet may be the strongest for our area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night!   Next strong Jet-Let slated for Sunday comes in about 12:00PM and continues into the evening hours, but it may not be as strong wind wise, as the temperature gradient may be less with a little cooler air already be in place. (Well See).

Main concern is for dead trees on windward side of structures getting blown down locally. Wind’s will initially be more from the southwest then become more west to east later in the weekend.  Residents throughout Mono County should do a walk around their residences and look for tall, dead or dying trees and have them removed as soon as possible, as the region is likely to have more wind events this fall.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)