Monday PM:

The Dweebs took a look at both the 12z ECMWF and 18Z GFS Ensembles this afternoon. The EC is certainly wetter as it forms a Closed low near the Bay Area and Moves it through South Central CA.  The GFS looks pretty Dry as the storm splits south down the coast to LA.    The sierra is going to get some snow Friday and Friday night. The question is how much. A compromise is usually in order. At the moment if you add the 2 inches that the GFS has for us to the foot the EC has, you get about 4 to 7 inches by Saturday AM over Mammoth Mt…..Not in town.

This system is not going to be a plow for the TOML unless the European model wins out..   The Dweebs will update Wednesday unless the models come together sooner….

PS.  There are more systems in back of the Friday System…..Monday and again Wednesday…..

 

The Dweeber…..

 

Saturday Noon:

Winds aloft continue to decrease as yesterdays upper jet makes its way east.  The system is now effecting the Central Rockies and look to stall out as a cut off low.  Height rises continue over CA and temperatures will move up quickly the next few days with mid 50s today and low 60s Sunday then mid to upper 60s on Monday. Full on spring weather at its finest will dominate the Eastern Sierra early next week…..

In the longer range…cooler weather will begin to occur after mid week as a series of storms make their way into California going into next weekend and possibly that following week 2…..  These storms are likely to bring significant snowfall to the Central and Northern Sierra according to the 6 to 10 day outlooks….

 

PS:  Did you know that for the most part, the current temperatures that are found online for Mammoth are really not in Mammoth?  Same for many of the temperature forecasts for Mammoth. It is all based upon Mammoth Airport which is a good 1,000 feet below much of the Town of Mammoth.  The Mammoth Ranger Station often times does not send in their reports timely, as they are sent in the day after; If you need to know actual temperatures in Mammoth Lakes you can get them at these links below and it is in real time!   The Temperatures are courtesy of Mammothweather.com at the 8200 foot level; two blocks from the village…. (Bookmark Them)

https://mammothweather.com/live-current-conditions/current-conditions/    (By the Hour)  https://mammothweather.com/live-current-conditions/hourly-data

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

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Here is the latest updated Forecast from Scripps put out on the 11th of April….  http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-04_for_2016-12.html

Here are important points to remember about La Nina;

  1. We are in the Spring Barrier period; The impact of that upon the eventual numbers can be significant. So the actual forecast number may change significantly by mid Summer.
  2. A major LA Nina is likely to have an effect upon global temperatures with some degree of cooling.
  3. A very strong La Nina probably means another dry year for Southern California next winter.  But remember, there is no certainty’s in this Climatology, just bias. The Bias is for an overall drier than normal winter for division 6 in CA. IE South of San Luis Obispo.
  4. There is a bias out west for a colder than normal winter as well, especially in the pacific NW.
  5. Precipitation is not likely to be above normal for the Central and Southern Sierra.
  6. Moderate La Nina’s give the best odds for the most snowfall in a cold ENSO event here. However, there seem to be more drier winters than wet ones.

There are as important teleconnection’s that will be looked at in the Fall before the winter forecast is put out.   They can enhance or diminish La Nina’s effect.

The key teleconnections will be the AO (Arctic Oscillation); The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation);  The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation),  The AMO and QBO.  A warm or cold Western Atlantic is an importation consideration to the progressiveness of the upper pattern. (IE the AMO) Once these factors are incorporated into mix, the winter weather forecast can be made.

 

Jan Null a CCM at Golden Gate Weather Services has done extensive research on ENSOs effect upon California Rainfall. Check out this link below and do some of your own…..

http://ggweather.com/enso/ca_lanina.htm

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)