Monday AM:

Upper jet diving south toward Baja this morning as upper low slows and slides SE. The Dweebs have seen this scenario before.  Essentially, this storm will not come through the sierra. Rather…it digs south into BAJA, Mexico. Coastal sections of California will likely get the lions share of precipitation while east of the Sierra into NV only light amounts. I suspect that the Winter Storm warning will be dropped at some point today. I personally am surprised that it is still up this morning.  The Dweebs still expect some wrap around snowfall this morning and possibly this afternoon, but again, amounts will be light….. 1 to 6 inches over all…

The Upper Jet makes a return to the sierra by Friday……Some over running precip still possible mid-week.

 

Update late today:

 

The Dweeber…………………………:-)

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The Next Short wave  has moved on shore and will be climbing the Sierra tonight.  QPF is about 1.25 to 1.4″ in the San Joaquin drainage by Monday PM.  Considering early orographic’s,  snow to water ratios which will be higher in this storm,  and the fact that a secondary impulse will dive south down the coast in the Early AM, 16 to 20 inches on Mammoth MT seems in the ball park and between 8 to 15 inches in town. There may be a bit more shadowing with this system.

Mid Week:

I have to say that this is not your typical ridge between weather systems. The models are bringing in a lot of warm air advection (over running). QPF forecasts are always problematic with (WAA). No doubt that there is going to be light snowfall now, later Tuesday into Wednesday. It will probably be around the 3 to 6 inch range on Mammoth Mountain and 1 to 3 in town.

Sorry for the bad news…It appeared earlier that we would get a clean break between storms mid-week, before the Thursday night/Friday storm arrived.  Warm Air advection is often times associated with a lot of high elevation breeze. So be ready for that if you are on the mountain mid-week. Winds really pick up Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

The next significant storms looks to have a good SW fetch and although the main short wave splits a bit as in comes into CA, it should be a good precip producer for the Sierra.

 

Thereafter, a large synoptic scale, adjustment/long wave trof will provide for a moist, consistent flow of moisture into the Sierra next weekend, for at least light to possibly moderate snowfall.  The Dweebs do not see another AR event until we approach the middle of the month of March. However, the pattern remains active.

The two-week outlook keeps the hits “right on coming”!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)