Ridge over the far west will weaken a bit after today, allowing a few short waves to bring some clouds, some cooling as well as breezy weather to the high country over the weekend. Daytime highs will still range in the low 50s Saturday and Sunday in town, with lows in the 20s. Winds will gust to 55mph over the ridges at times this weekend. Outside of a few light showers late Sunday, no measurable precipitation is expected…

MJO:  Update 2/25 at 8:00AM

GFS is beginning to trend toward the other global models in agreement with the idea of rapid weakening around the dateline. However there is still some upper divergence associated with the MJO tracking a bit further east at this time. The Classic Westerlies Break Through is very unlikely.

The Dweebs are now looking toward the next possibility of the next series of storms for the high country the 2nd half of March. The idea of a “significant” March 3rd storm is no longer in the picture and will more likely be pushed back to at least the 8th or 9th.

In looking at the “ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System [T639L91]” the 5 day means across North America shows a trend for the current cold Hudson Bay Low and long wave Trof over the east to weaken during the 2nd week of March then shift east. This should open up the current wave length and weaken the semi-permanent west coast ridge. The ensemble model also shows the current adjustment wave, IE, Aleutian Low,  shifting east toward the Eastern Pacific. The resulting 500mb height falls over California will lend to a southward shift in the storm track. (Note: The NCEP Climate Models are all over this)

Although we may see our 1st significant system in Central CA around the 7th or 8th, and again about the 11th, the likelihood of storminess will increase by Mid March, and then possibly thru the end of March, as we say goodby to Winter and look forward to Spring…

Stay Tuned…….The Dweebs have you covered!

 

The Dweeber…………………………………….:-)