Thursday PM:

Latest Jan 00z 22 Update QPF from “WPC”, for the Sierra is about 2.25 inches around Mammoth with a 3.34 bulls Eye about 60 miles NW of the Mammoth Crest.

This updated QPF suggests that two combined systems will produce less than this mornings update. Latest models are showing some splitting of the upper flow that may limit to some extent snowfall totals.   Nevertheless, it still looks like well see around two feet, at elevations between 9K and 10K by early Sunday AM. CRFC QPF has about 2.00 for the Yosemite. This is also a little less than this AM. We often get 2 feet or a bit more with those amounts over the crest.

Lower elevations maybe more in the 12 to 18 inch range, at and above 7000 feet, west of highway 395. The Dweebs will take another look in the morning…..

 

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The last in the series of weather makers will begin to make its way into the high country later today with the effect of an increase in upper level winds over the crest.  This morning,  winds were very light over the lower slopes with ridge top peak gusts to only 25 MPH. Winds are expected to begin to ramp up this afternoon with the process continuing through Friday…..

 

Latest reports from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is indicating a 3 to 4 day bull’s-eye just to the NW of MAMMOTH OF 3.27 INCHES.  Amounts to the NW of Tahoe are in excess of 4.00 inches on the west side. The upcoming storms will create a 1 -2 punch with a warm sector Friday AM associated with a small “AR”.

The latest WPC discussion indicated a moisture plume with Precipitable Water (PWAT) values of an inch streaming into Central CA  Friday AM that moves southward toward Southern CA by Saturday AM, then south to Northern MX by Saturday night. By the time it gets to Mexico, a strong onshore flow will begin into Central CA early Saturday AM. 

There will be two significant periods for precipitation over the Sierra:

  1. Onshore flow moves into Central California on Saturday through Saturday evening when the flow becomes parallel to the coast. Maximum QPF is expected to remain along the Sierra with Maximum amounts ranging from 1.50 to 2.75 inches on Friday into Saturday AM.
  2. A secondary impulse Saturday into early Sunday Morning shows the maximum QPF amounts again remaining along the sierra with amounts ranging from 1.00 to 1.25 inches.
  3. Thus the most favorable areas will have total QPF’s of between 2.50 inches and 4.00+ inches by Sunday AM.
  4. It is again the west side Northern Sierra that will have the most generous amounts.
  5. Mammoth Mt stands to receive between 2 and 3 feet of snowfall totals over the weekend.
  6. Lower elevation areas like the Town of Mammoth is expected to receive some ware between 1 and 2 feet

 

Longer Range:

Lots of cloudiness at times but dry Monday though at least Wednesday with a warming trend…. High temps may get near 50 by Wednesday in town with lows in the 20s

Another small “AR” is possible by the following Friday……

 

More Later……………..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)