So far, the Town of Mammoth has picked up 2.24 inches of water from this storm, while Mammoth Mt snow plot at Sesame, indicates up 4.84 inches of water. Another 3.5 to 4 inches is expected over the crest before the last AR is over in this cycle.  The Town of Mammoth will get another 1 to 1.5 inches of water through Saturday AM.  So far, Mammoth Mt reports about 3 feet at the Main lodge and approaching 5 feet at the 10,000 foot level. Another 2 to 3 feet is expected over Mammoth Mt prior to the end of this storm cycle. The snow level is now 9500 feet. It has been raining in town since late morning Tuesday and will continue to do so through Thursday. There will be a break in the precipitation later today into Thursday morning before the next and final AR arrives later in the day Thursday.  Expect the freezing level to fall Thursday night with the snow level coming down as well, into the Towns of Mammoth and June Lake. Snowfall is expected all day Friday and Friday night.  Snow showers are expected Saturday morning in town.

Accumulations in the Town of Mammoth will be between 6 and 10 inches at the village between Thursday at 10:00PM and Friday at 10:00 AM.   The Snow level at 10:00PM Thursday will be between 7500 and 8000 feet through 10:00AM Friday. About 1.20 inches of precip is expected within the same time frame. Between 10:00AM Friday and 4:00PM Friday expect about .25. Or about and additional 2 to 3 inches of snow at temperature. Little accumulation is expected after midnight Friday night into Saturday AM.

 

Medium Range:

A nice break is expected Sunday through Wednesday next week as high pressure aloft builds over the region. However, the next series of storms look likely to hit as early as Thursday night the 16th.

Note: The Dweebs have noticed that the next storm cycle will be different, in that the pattern or storm track is developing further west. The wave length relative to the location of the central coast suggests that the upper flow becomes very diffluent as it runs to higher height’s. This means that the storms will begin to run into resistance and tend to split prior to coming on shore. Although there is lots of time for the pattern to adjust, a pattern like this may cause the storms to split south into Southern California bringing them a very wet scenario, as there is a lot of strong jet support indicated along the US/Mexican border, well south of where it has been.

Climate:

The Climate Forecast system indicates that week three or the last week of February will turn wet again. Heights at 500MB over the WPO region are anomalously high. IE (-WPO) .  This would indicate a return to AR conditions along the west coast with a strong undercutting upper jet.

I will have a special report on this next week in my weather letter at:  http://data.mammothweather.com/landing/

See 500MB Height Forecast from CFS:

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)