Archive for June, 2017

Wednesday AM:

One more day of seasonal temperatures for the Mono County area then a warming trend occurs Thursday into Friday as the current westerly flow aloft shifts east and higher pressure aloft builds in from the south.  The ridge is weakened by a weak trof that moves through Saturday and Sunday with little change in our weather with the exception of a little more Zephyr Breeze in the afternoon and evening. Mammoth Lakes weather will be beautiful through the holiday weekend with highs today Wednesday in the mid 70s pushing to near 80 by Thursday and then up to 83 by Friday. Little change in temperature is expected thereafter through the Fourth of July. Lows at night in the dry air will get down to the 40s after midnight. Expect the usual afternoon and evening Zephyr breezes in the 10 to 15 mph range with the same type breezes in the 15 to 25 MPH range Saturday and Sunday. The weather will be as perfect as one could hope for.

Longer Range:

The weak trough that drops into Central and Southern CA this Saturday and Sunday will provides a dry southwest flow over Mammoth. The GFS keeps the trough more intact over Southern California through Tuesday then lifts it out over the Great Basin Wednesday. The ECMWF model retrogrades it off shore early next week which allows an area of high pressure to build closer to the Four Corners than the GFS. This scenario results in the mid level flow turning southeast to south across Arizona and Southern Nevada Tuesday and Wednesday. This would begin to open the door for monsoon moisture over New Mexico first, then expanding west into Arizona prior to the following weekend. In that both global models differ on this at this time, confidence is not great. Should the upper flow turn SE over Southern CA by the end of next week, moisture advection would occur over the state along with air mass modification and Summertime thunderstorms would begin over the sierra with the areal coverage increasing by the day.

Monday:

Finally a break in the heat over much of California this week as the subtropical high gives ways to short wave energy transiting the Pacific Northwest.  With a more prevailing WSW flow, afternoon convection will be minimized with a more stable air mass. Drier air will mean cooler nights and with lows in most areas in the upper 30s and 40s. Daytime highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s, seasonal for this time of the year. Light to moderate Zephyr winds will blow mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, 15 to 25 MPH with some gusts to 30 mph.  Although there will be some rebuilding of the subtropical continental high late Thursday into Friday, high temps should not exceed the low 80s Friday. Additional short wave energy passing to our north over the holiday weekend and the fourth will keep our weather very comfortable and dry. There will be periods of afternoon and evening Zephyr winds over the next 5 to 7 days. Highs will range mostly in the upper 70s and low 80s the end of the week through the holiday.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

Saturday 6-17-17

Quick update shows near record to record heat over the next 5 days over Eastern CA.  Mammoth Lakes will enjoy beautiful warm days with highs in the 80s through next Thursday. Lows in the low to mid 50s.

The cool down expected for the next weekend will be much less then expected. Expect highs to remain closer to 80 next weekend.  Evidence of the next substantial cool down is expected the very end of the month and into the first few days of July.  Highs may cool to the low 70s by July 2nd.

Friday June 16th update:

For fun, I just looked up the climate re-analysis for this Tuesday at 18Z (11:00AM) , 2015.  What I found was that the 500MB iso-height line came in over Pt Conception and swung east over the southern portion of the Owens Valley into NV. On that day, Bishop hit 108, which was a record for that day of the month of June.  This morning I had a look at both the ECMWF and GFS 18Z 500mb heights Prog for the same time frame. Both were remarkably the same showing that 594DM iso height line coming in very near the Bay Area then swinging ENE across highway 80 and Reno. The main point is that 500MB heights are forecasted to be a good 30-40DM higher with this anomalous pattern for June.  I think that record high temperatures for Eastern CA will be tied or broken.  The record for Bishop is 108 set in 2015 for the 20th of June, 2015… 

PSA:   Please do not leave your kids, seniors or animals in your car unattended even for a very short while. This heat wave developing for California is especially deadly for any person or animal left in a closed vehicle.  

Weather Update:

It appears to be one of the warmer Motocross Weekends with high temperatures reaching into the low 80s in Mammoth Lakes. The last time we had similar temps was mid June of 2015. The Dweebs still feel that there may be some high elevation snow-cover effects on our local weather, possibly slightly dampening the potential of upper 80s early next week and inhibiting convection, directly over the crest.

The Western Hemi Pattern is currently zonal across the eastern half of the pacific, east to the Rockies.  To our SE over NW Mexico, is an incipient subtropical high that will build both northward and at the same time, expand westward this week. A more dominant northward expansion of the Continental High is expected this weekend into early next week. Forecast global models show increases in 1000mb-500MB thicknesses, increased dibatically over the desert southwest, westward to the California Coast, through next Tuesday. Tuesday of next week may be the warmest day depending upon which model is correct. Today’s 12z ECMWF shows 500MB heights reaching just above 597DM over western AZ, southern NV and SE California by 06Z Tuesday. That is one warm Monday night!  So expect Mid Summer like heat this weekend into mid-week next week as Spring goes out like wimp and Summer roars in like a tiger! The Summer Solstice is this Tuesday evening the 20th at 9:24 PM, PDT. High Temperatures will range in the low to mid 80s this weekend and through next Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are expected this weekend and through mid-week during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Longer Range:

Generally speaking, the trend of the models for the second half of next week shows the retrogression of a portion of the subtropical Continental High westward, while the eastern portion of the Continental high remains intact over the desert southwest. As 500MB height falls occur over the Pacific Northwest, and troughing extends SW, our Mt. Weather will both cool down and breeze up that weekend. There will be some Zephyr winds possible Thursday afternoon with the Zephyr strengthening a bit Friday. High temps will still range in the upper 70s to low 80s. Thursday and Friday. Synoptic scale wind and cooling will occur Saturday and Sunday. The Dweebs are expecting about 10 degrees of cooling next weekend. The pattern will be dry as well for the Sierra next weekend.  High temps may pull back closer to normal then.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)