So far, as the Dweebs earlier forecasted, our summer has been pretty void of strong thunderstorms here in Mammoth Lakes. We have been for the most part, void of the wide spread heavy rains that give our area about an inch of precipitation during the Summer months. The idea was, back in May, that additional Trofing in the pacific NW would force the deeper moisture of the monsoon, further east and south. So far that has worked out. Most of the deeper moisture and dynamics has remained further east and south. Late July and Early August typically bring the best chances for wetting rains here in Mammoth Lakes.

High temperatures here at 8000 FT have reached well into the 80s with 87 our warmest day so far since the solstice.  Typically, our warmest day reaches 88 during the summer. So over all, not a hot summer here in the Eastern Sierra and certainly drier than normal.  We still have August to contend with and I do see a rather warm weekend coming up along with chances of some wetting rains developing next week.

It will be drier Wednesday and Thursday with seasonal temperatures today Wednesday with just some afternoon clouds. It will be warmer over the weekend with isolated TSRW’s     Next week…..A return of at least modified Monsoon and air-mass modification leading to some days of wetting rains…

Winter Guesses:  teleconnections…

The North Pacific is warmer than normal well up into the Bearing Sea and even that sea into the arctic to its north.  As a side note, I just got back from a trip to the NW passage and flew over the Mendenhall Glacier. Most of the Glaciers are in retreat in that area.  Many are disappearing pretty quickly according to the locals and experts I spoke with.

 

The forecast of ENSO is for neutral ENSO conditions moving back to weak La Nina conditions by January.  This argues for more AR events this winter as the correlation between weak El Ninos to weak La Ninas that favor more west coast AR’s.  The PDO is still in its Positive phase like last winter updated today for the month of June.  The QBO has dropped to weakly negative.  It is over do for a flip to negative. the Sun is heading toward its solar minimum.  All these indices are positive for at least a normal to above winter. However, it is still very early to be making winter predictions…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:-)