Wednesday AM UPDATE:

Latest guidance on the timing of the precipitation has moved up a bit. Light rain is likely in town after midnight tonight with rain turning to snow after about 5:00AM. However, the bulk of the precipitation will be over before the rain turns to snow in town. Amounts of 5 inches still look reasonable over the top of Mammoth Mt at 10,000 to 11,000 feet. However, at the village, amounts look to be about an inch by late morning Thursday. There will be a continuing chance of snow showers Thursday into the evening and again a slight chance of snow showers Friday and Friday night. The weekend looks fair but cooler than normal. Highs in the 50s with lows in the 20s. Great Oktoberfest weather….
Prost!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)

Tuesday Afternoon Update:

This is my first snowfall forecast for the Mammoth area this season. Although I would not put too much creditability to it. Especially since WSFO Reno this afternoon, did not forecast any snow other than a slight chance of snow showers Thursday. In looking at the both the European and American models, it seems to me that there is a good possibility of at least 1 to 3 inches of snow at the 8000 foot level by the evening Thursday. I am going with 3 to 5 inches over the crest by the same time.

CRFC forecasts the freezing level to drop from 9,900 feet at 5:00AM to 8500 feet by 11:00AM. It stays about there throughout the afternoon. In this type of pattern, the snow level will range between 1500 to 2000 feet below the freezing level. I do expect some light accumulations in the Towns of Mammoth and June Thursday. Amounts could be as high as 5 inches over Mammoth MT by Thursday night.

Points worth noting:

1. This second short wave will have good over-water trajectory over the eastern pacific for a short period of time. There is a lot of cold unstable air and there are good vertical motion fields indicated. The upper jet is pointed at the central sierra, mid-morning Thursday. It appears that mid to late Thursday morning will be the best time for accumulations. PWAT of over an inch pushes into the Central Valley Wednesday night into Thursday morning. So for a short time, moisture, the upper jet and good UVM “upward vertical motion” are all there. Snow showers will likely continue during the afternoon. There is another Vort max or two that will slide over the area kicking up a few showers through Friday…

Highs will cool to the mid to upper 40s on Thursday, Lows well down into the 20s. Thus a taste of winter as we say goodbye to the summer. The Equinox is at 1:02PM Friday PDT. So if you looking for a reason to party Friday night, it’s the Equinox!

The Dweeber……………

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Dry weather with seasonal temperatures are expected this last weekend of Summer. Mammoth had its first frost this morning with a low of 32 at the village. It will be a few degrees warmer Saturday and Sunday with lows continuing in the 30s by early morning. Highs at 8000 feet will range in the mid 60s.

Large scale pattern is Highlighted by a weak ridge that will move through our area Sunday and Monday. At the same time, a vigorous upper Trof moves into the pacific NW. The first part of the large scale change is coming in as a NW slider with mainly wind and cooling Monday night into Tuesday. It will be quite breezy in town Monday and Monday night with winds 20 to 30MPH and windy over the upper elevations with gusts to 60MPH+.
Several more waves with in this pattern will drive south next week bringing periods of wind and cooling. The last and strongest wave will arrive Thursday into Friday, There appears to be enough over water with the upper jet to warrant mentioning a chace of either snow showers or light snowfall over the upper elevations. I will fine tune this next week. The Dweebs expect stronger winds developing Wednesday night into Thursday followed by falling high temperatures of 50s during the Day in Mammoth and lows well down into the 20s by sunrise Friday AM, The following weekend looks cooler than normal as well. Best chance of the dusting will be Thursday and Friday next week.

Inter-Seasonal Outlook:

The Climate Forecast systems inter-seasonal outlook this morning shows a return of summer like weather with warmer than normal temperatures the 1st half of October.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)