11/2/2017 Thursday AM update:

European Model wins out!

The European model’s exceptional physic’s has been consistent in indicating a much less AR for the Central and Southern Sierra from the beginning. The GFS has now come in line with the Euro and diminishes the subtropical fetch from the SW into the Central and Southern Sierra.  The WPC that touted over 3 inches of water EQ some 3 to 4 days ago has really back peddled on the QPF the past 24 hours.   In addition, the emphasis of the QPF is now the Northern Sierra like the EURO has touted all along, not the wetter and further south Canadian and GFS models.

What does this mean?   Although it will be snow in town for the most part for the entire storm, amounts will be less than a foot; more like 4 to 8 inches while the upper elevations will squeak out a foot or a bit better, especially over the crest where orographic’s will come into play, It is possible that accumulations over Mammoth Mt may be between 12 to 18 inches this weekend, especially considering the snow to water ratio which will be about 12:1 over the upper elevations 10,000’+ on Sunday.

 

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12:45PM 11/1/17 update:

 

Latest 12z Global models runs are in now and the big message is that the GFS has been too wet hanging on to the “AR” too long. The European model has always been regarded as the gold standard in many ways. Although it is not “Always” correct, it is the most correct model most often in my opinion, especially when it is consistent against a consistent GFS.

So here is my updated thinking at the moment for snowfall amounts for the greater Mammoth Area.

1 to 2 feet at and above 9,000 feet by Monday AM

6 to 12 inches in the town of Mammoth the same time frame.

 

FROM 9:30am 11/1/17

There is enough consistency in the models for Mono County’s first winter storm that will bring up to a foot+ of snow in the Town of Mammoth, beginning by Friday night and throughout the days Saturday and Sunday….The Snow Level will eventually fall to between 5000 and 6000 feet before this storm is over sometime Monday. Most of the precipitation will fall as snow in the Town of Mammoth.  I am doing a blend now of the ECMWF and GFS as they have been consistent with the effects of the AR in their own right, but still differ quite a bit from each other, The Dweebs feel that  between 15 to 30 inches of snow is possible over the higher terrain above 9000 feet over the weekend.

Of course if the GFS’s handling of the AR is better, greater amounts would occur. Both the GFS and Canadian Models handle the phasing of the southern branch of the Polar Jet more favorably for snowfall for the Central Sierra than the European. They target the northern parts of the Southern Sierra and especially the Central Sierra best by keep the “AR” going another 24 hours!!  With still 3 days before the event, there is still time to make adjustments, both to snowfall estimates in town and over the crest. It is possible that amounts could go significantly higher if the European should agree more toward the GFS by a more enhanced and protracted AR.  At time, the European is not as wet here with more emphasis on the Northern Sierra.

The main message here is that winter weather conditions will arrive in the sierra this weekend, and once the snow in on the ground at Resorts levels and the higher elevations, it will be here to stay for the next 5 to 6 months….

Hope you all have had a great Summer and Fall…..Mammoth is now ready for its other seasons……

 

The Extended shows another storm about the middle of next week.

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)