10/18/2017

California Rivers Forecast Center is showing between .05 to .10 of an inch of qpf between Huntington Lakes and Yosemite. Pretty Pathetic….So possibly an inch or two in the Bowls above 10K and some snow shower’s in town by Mid Day Friday. Thereafter….Full On PNA teleconnection Pattern setting up over the Eastern Pacific according to Day + 8 Means with Anchoring Central Pacific long wave trof at 150W and the same negative height anomaly from Hudson Bay south over the Eastern US near 90 West. The Far west has a 500MB, 150 decameter positive height anomaly centered over the SE OR/NV border. Looks like great beach weather with off shore flow and once again fire concerns for the Southern CA Mountains. I would not be surprised to hear about some 100/105 degree temps in the Valleys and Coastal Plain with hot October off shore flow, Monday and Tuesday next week.
Time to hit the beach! Its going to get HOT!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)

10/17/17 Tuesday AM:

Western pacific MJO currently very strong in phase 5. This tropical base state is spawning strong typhoons as upper divergent envelope now well established over the Western Pacific. So far, these Typhoons are destructively phasing with westerlies. This situation favors even stronger height rises over the far west the end of this week into next. In that it is possible that one of these typhoons could constructively phase during the week two period, the longer range guidance should not be relied upon to any great degree.

In the meantime, a fast moving upper Trof will bring wind, cooling and some showers to the Eastern Sierra, Thursday and Friday. No significant precipitation is expected over Southern Mono County, however some rain/snow showers are possible Friday AM with the snow level well above the Town of Mammoth Lakes.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)

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The Global models have been back peddling on the AR now for about 36 hours as they suggest that the coupling of the Subtropical low now to the west of California, will not only occur but that the system will retrograde and track SW. The colder system that is forecasted to dig in from the NW is not as deep either as its energy is forecasted to move through California early to mid morning Friday. As you can see from my October 11th post, the discussion indicated that with the MJO increasing in the phase 5 RIMM, an upper divergence envelope would develop over the tropical western pacific and spawn typhoons and tropical storms that would either constructively or destructively phase with the westerlies. The change in the pattern now being forecasted by the global models suggest that some destructive phasing may be occurring over the western pacific. I warned about this in my October 11th post that the guidance would become unreliable as in the comment, “will we bite on the guidance”.

As of this Monday morning, it still looks like we will get a Trof and frontal passage Friday morning and it still looks like there will be some moisture enhancement from the subtropical low, but to a much lesser degree. Amounts this morning suggest .25 to .50 inches of QPF with a fairly high snow level. After the weather system pushes though, we’ll really ridge up for some gorgeous fall weather into the following week….that is if we believe the guidance! 😉