Thursday PM Update:

IT’S All ABOUT THE BLOCK!

In Early Star Wars Movies Luke was told to Search his feelings in regards to the Force.

Today as an amateur weather forecaster, as I look around at all the snow in Mammoth Lakes, in searching my feelings, I have to say that I prefer that mother nature shut it off for several weeks!  And…..see mid winter temps in the 50s instead of the 20s so we can get some melt!  We lack snow storage; and if we were to get another 4 to 6 feet of snow in town, it might be doubt full that anyone down south would be able to enjoy it!  Why?  Because of no were to put the snow and nowhere to park and other major complication’s that might be unforeseen….

Update on the Models….

Trying to be as objective as one can….I have to say that after looking at this mornings 12Z Thursday GFS run, the certainty of the negative phase WPO/EPO becoming positive after the following weekend, thereby allowing retrogression of the block west to Siberia is not as certain this morning as it was yesterday or last night. If this block does not retrograde….we may have a problem….The Ensembles, a collection of deterministic runs, will tell the story over the next 5 days.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..

 

 

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As of 3:30PM Wednesday, the trend continues of the retrograding closed anti cyclone to Siberia the next weekend, thereby allowing heights to rise along the west coast week 2.

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Just when snow storage is maxed out and although the next storm is likely to bring more snowfall the middle of next week….Some light is showing up in the longer term….

The biggest factor in shifting the upper jet to the north is the big blocking high that is expected to rapidly set up again over AK and the Bering Sea. This is forecasted by both EC and GFS to shift rapidly west, past the dateline by the following weekend. Two of the 3 global models show that. The only outliner was the Canadian Model from last night which leaves the block in place a while longer.

A shift of the block to the west will send the storm track back up into the pacific NW for an extended period….

These are new trends….Need more time for confidence building……

Stay tuned for updates….

 

The Dweeber………………:-)