Monday 7:00am

WSW now in effect

note:  snow level will rise today to between 8000 and 8500 then come down later this afternoon and tonight.

 

All model simulations have a track of the upper low moving west to east between Santa Barbara and Lax. This is further south than predictions Saturday. Main focus of forcing will be Southern Sierra with extension north to about Mammoth. Heaviest Precipitation will be coastal mountains of Ventura Co and eastward with local amounts 7 to 9 inches of water.

Mammoth Mt stands to receive 3 to 4 feet over the crest with 18 to 30 inches in town above 8000 feet by Tuesday night. 15 to 24 inches at 7500. Expect a fair weekend with high pressure aloft.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……

 

Complete update Tuesday morning…

 

Sunday pm update

 

Winter storm warning:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ073&warncounty=CAC051&firewxzone=CAZ273&local_place1=13%20Miles%20E%20Lee%20Vining%20CA&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=37.939&lon=-118.887

 

300pm sat update

 

A winter storm watch has been issued by the national weather service for elevations above 7500 feet beginning at 7:00pm Monday night and continuing through Tuesday night. Between 2 and 3 feet of snow is expected by Tuesday night.

Amounts over the crest are expected to be 4 feet+.  There will be a break next weekend before the “first” powerful jetstream of the winter of 2017/18 arrives about the 15th…

 

I will have a detailed update in AM

 

 

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Finally…cooler breezy weather has returned to the high county this morning with a dusting of snow over the higher elevation’s and more to come over the next 5 to 7 days. Our dominant west coast high pressure system has shifted east to the state of Utah this morning. That’s enough to open the door to some pacific moisture and cooler temperatures.  The wave that moved though early this morning brought a few hundreds of an inch of water EQ. Another wave will move though Friday night with up to .30 inches of water over the crest. This should bring some 2 to 4 inches of snow over the top of Mammoth Mt. High temps will be in the 40s in town with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s

Extended:

A more important system that has been well advertised will move into the high country early next week with the potential to bring between 1 to 2 feet of snow over the higher elevations by Wednesday afternoon. The storm is being handled differently by both preferred global models. The ECMWF (EURO)  has the system coming in as an open trof while the GFS has it coming in as a large closed low. Either way, Mammoth gets good snowfall but the EC would be wetter as it can transport more moisture into the system while the GFS has us in the NE quad of the closed low system. The GFS  closed nature favors good lift, however, does not have as much moisture potential as the EC.   In that the EC has ensemble members that are more numerous with its solution, the Dweebs are favoring the EC at this time. IE more precip. Stay tuned on this Monday through Wednesday system for next week.  PS. it will be a colder system as well.

Long Range:

Another pattern change favors more of a zonal flow about mid month.  This is associated with quite the potent Pacific Jet Stream. I am suspect at this time of this wet scenario.  This pattern would be A-Typical due to the nature of a winter that has been associated with mostly Meridional flow thus far.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)