It is always a disappointment when we do not reach winter storm criteria in town, but 18 inches over the upper elevations and possibly more to come today is certainly encouraging!  Results; The GFS had it further south and so it was the correct model to follow….Go figure!  A difference of 50 to 75 miles was all it took.  In the meantime, our winter storm warning has been dropped to a winter weather advisory due to slippery roads, mainly above 7000-7500 feet.  Latest rapid refresh model shows 1 to 3 inches in town with some 3 to 6 inches possible on Mammoth Mt through tonight. There maybe be a short period of Wrap-Around as the upper low moves through to the south of us. Although we did not do as well as we hoped for, we did a lot better than many of our neighboring ski resorts in the Northern Sierra!

Wednesday will be a day of improving weather with skies yielding a few early morning showers. Sky’s will become partly cloudy during the day then clear out Wednesday night. High temps will rise to the 40s Wednesday. The weekend weather will be fair with calm winds.  Expect an increase of upper elevation breeze Monday afternoon into Tuesday next week.  Lows over the weekend will be in the 20s with highs in the low 50s.

Outlook:  Although the Dweebs have not seen the latest ECMWF model, the latest 12Z Tuesday GFS has the upper jet moving back into Northern California early next week where it keeps it there for several days. The Upper Jet sags south towards us, during the second half of next week.  (Using the Japanese surface cyclogenesis method), as a timing tool used by Hovmuller, it shows a rapidly deepening surface low that is “bombing” off the coast of Japan the next Wednesday.  That energy is expected to come through our area about Sunday the 21st. So, based upon this theory, the following weekend should be wet.   (Again, I have not seen the latest EURO as it has not run yet) I will update later today….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs….