Platinum Powder Alert for Friday: Between 1 and 2 feet of Platinum Powder (Snow to Water Ratio equal to or greater than 15:1)

Wednesday PM Update:
Winter Storm Warning in effect from March 1, 04:00 AM PST until March 3, 10:00 AM PST
Blizzard Warning in effect from March 1, 10:00 AM PST until March 2, 01:00 PM PST

Town of Mammoth may receive 24 to 40 inches of snow between late tonight and Saturday.
Up to 60+ inches is expected on Mammoth Mountain over the crest Storm total.


Bullet points/comments from the new 12Z GFS run this morning.

I have to say that this is quite interesting to see the amount and size of the Arctic Air mass getting pulled southward from the Beaufort Sea north of the Arctic Circle south along the west coast for this time of the year!!  Amazing!!  Do you think that the Sun Spot Minimum has anything to do with that? 😉

Here are the numbers!

At 500mb (18000feet)

  1. -40C to -45C is pulled down over Northwest Territories today.
  2. Huge pool of -35C to -40C is located from the very Northern most California coast north to Prince Rupert Island Canada. That is an amazingly large cold pool for that cold temperature!
  3. -35C cold pool gets as far south as Highway 80 early Friday morning with the southerly push continuing and modifying.
  4. -35C into Reno Saturday AM.

At 700MB 10,000 feet.

  1. Cold Modified Arctic lags the cold at 500MB
  2. -17C is progged into Northern CA Thursday Night
  3. -15C into Reno Friday morning.
  4. -8C to -10C at Mammoth or 14F to 18F Friday AM
  5. Note: there is plenty of vertical motion and moisture to keep the snow going through Friday night.
  6. With the coldest temps aloft Friday afternoon into Saturday AM.
  7. Highest snow to water ratios Friday into Saturday AM.
  8. Sunday to be a Blue Bird Day


Longer Range:


Subtropical Jet develops off shore next week, Tuesday into Wednesday. Looked at the QPF and it was not all that impressive for Thursday and Friday, only .25 to .50. With that said, it should be pointed out that this is a system with Isentropic lift (upglide) or warm frontal type precip, early on. This pattern may also include a short term “AR”.   Forecast models do not handle this type of precipitation very well, so it is possibly quite under done, QPF wise.  The warm sector precip may begin as early as Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday AM. This is a system that would begin with cold air in place with warming temperatures over a day or two then followed by colder again. Great for avalanches…yes?


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)