Models continue trend of focusing main thrust of Precipitation of an approaching “AR” for next Friday over Northern CA and Central CA. Snow levels look very high, at and above 9000 feet.  So rain a good bet for the town if the models hold on to that idea for next week, The MJO is amplified in phase spaces 7 and remains amped through phase 1. So above normal temperatures are likely under the subtropical high….. highs at 8000 ft will range depending upon cloud cover between 57 and 62 degrees in Mammoth with lows in the 30s. These temps are primarily for just above the nighttime inversion..



The Madden Julian Oscillation is Amping now in phase 7, and accordingly,  the Eastern Pacific Ridge is Amping as well along the west coast bringing the warm up. This upper ridge will move over CA Friday and weaken due to short wave action and peak out the warming trend with highs about 60 . Lots of high cloudiness will result over the weekend, however, temps will remain above normal.  Highs in the upper 50s in Mammoth and upper 70s in Bishop. lows in the 30s at resort levels.

The MJO is forecasted to translate east over the following two weeks. For week one, that means a continuing period of warmer than normal temps according to the RIMM composites.  As the MJO shifts from Phase 8 to 1 and possibly 2, the composites suggest the possibility of precipitation moving back into the Southern half of CA and the teleconnection WPO going negative with the “possibility of a blocking high near or just east of the Bering Sea. Undercutting of the westerlies with zone flow, may make it to the central west coast thereafter.  This brings the possibility of an AR as well. Although It is still too soon to count on from a climate perspective, it is interesting that both ECMWF and GFS global models suggest a strong negative phase of the WPO developing (Upper Level High Pressure blocking)  during the first week of April. In fact the standard deviation of normal for the -WPO is off the chart for the ECMWF and about -5 Deviation of normal for the GFS for that same time period.  Their ensemble members during the 2nd half of next week support a possible AR during the time frame Thursday and Friday next week.

On another note, DWP just posted the update on the Mammoth Pass water wise. It indicated that the pass was 95% of normal for the water year ending April 1st.   Again this is just telemetry and I suspect that when the manual survey is done, it will be considerably less.  Nevertheless, it is certainly encouraging! It shows that the pass went from about 5 inches up until the 3rd week of February to 40.5 inches. Now that’s amazing…almost a Miracle?  Again, this does not include the final manual core sampling that will likely be taken just after the first of April. Also noted that the Central Sierra was 70% of normal to date with about 16 inches of water eq. (Quite a difference).   I feel that the main point here,  is that Mammoth Pass possibly picked up the lions-share of the last AR event in California.


Enjoy the great weather over the coming days with spring conditions returning to the lower slopes…..

Get it while its cold……………..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)