Archive for June, 2018

Quick visual smoke update regarding Lion fire

Spread of fire was greatly reduced over the past 24 hours   The majority of all smoke  has been absent this morning and gone from the skys over the town of mammoth. Some light smoke returned this afternoon. It appears that firefighters have really gotten the situation under control!

Summer has arrived and as expected this year, with above normal temps as well as the usual afternoon Zephyr breezes. Dry weather associated with west to south west flow is typical for June as although the westerlies are well to the north, they still can force a dry southwest flow into CA with the effect of shunting monsoon moisture well to the east. Thus climo suggests a dry stable air mass is quite likely for much of the last 10 days of June, post the Fathers Day, Climo Freeze.

OPINE:

In that we are in Solar Minimum, there are though’s that suggest that this summer will be highlighted by more troughing than usual, promoting a Summer with less than normal thunderstorms and stronger Zephyr winds. So if this is true, this summer may end up shorter and Fall weather may descend upon us earlier, if upper troughing off shore is more persistent all summer.  By the way, the NOAA is forecasting a hot summer with warmer than normal temps and with equal chances for normal precipitation for Mammoth. The infamous “Old Farmers Almanac” uses the solar cycle in part in their long-range predictions. They are calling for a dry Summer with below normal temps. This suggests to me that California will be subject to the troughing idea this summer which would also may lead to an earlier start to Winter.

EL Nino….

The El Nino drums are beating again…The spread of warm water under the surface that moves west to east just north of the equator during an El Nino development is well underway and may reach moderate strength much later this year.

See:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml 

As we know now through the many research papers, a powerhouse El Nino does not guarantee California a wet winter. The SSTA’s heat needs to be located in the right spot, “longitude wise”. Big prediction spoilers seem to be more associated with the Modoki El Nino where significantly cooler temps in comparison to the ENSO 3.4 region are located in the ENSO regions 3 and 1+2.   1+2 is along the Central American Coast.

QBO (Strato Winds along Equator) is currently in its Easterly Phase and will likely flip later this Fall. The westerly phase is more associated with El Nino.

Sunday AM Update:

6/24/2018….Did a bit more research on the currently developing El Nino. Found that the Equatorial Subsurface waters >100Meters meters below the surface is quite warm; as warm as +6F to+9F above normal in some spots. This is quite significant and leads to the potential for even a strong Event.  However, what will not be determined until much later in the year is whether this will be a “full basin” El Nino or the big let down for California, the Modoki El Nino. The latter can give California a dry winter and make for a cold Eastern US.

Back to Weather:

Longer Range Week two models show a strong tropical storm moving NW well off the Baja Coast.  The GFS has strong troughing for Early July possibly phasing with it.  Stay Tuned as the weather after the Fourth of July may get interesting for at the least Southern CA.

Sunday AM Update: Models are back peddling at this time for any effects from those TS upon California except for high surf on south facing beaches.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)