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Archive for July, 2018
A slow cooling trend is expected into the weekend with some thunder through Wednesday……It will be breezy or windy and cooler this weekend….Very warm again next week….
Tuesday July 31, 2018
Thursday PM:
Red Flag Warning Hoisted Today For Mono County for Saturday:
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Wednesday PM Update:
Much better air quality in Mammoth today. Last night was good too! Not counting on it every day but very good today! The weekend outlook looks breezy beginning Thursday afternoon into Friday with gusts continuing through the weekend….15 to 30mph. Highs will cool to the mid 70s with lows mostly in the 40s. It is a dry 5 day outlook.
Looked at the Forecast Models from today’s 12Z runs and WOW!! Mother nature may be giving us a bit of a break in the heat throughout Eastern CA this weekend as compared to the warm temps of the past week. But the maps are Awesome again in building the big subtropical continental high right back into the Great Basin and eventually California between Tuesday and the following weekend. This time the core of the max upper heights is more north, over north central Ca and Western NV by the weekend. With a little bit of luck it will push enough moisture in here before it really sets up. So we cloud up limiting the heat. When is this going to happen? The European waists no time as it starts building the upper high into CA beginning Monday afternoon. By Tuesday PM it is set up over the Desert SW and California. By the following Friday evening, guidance suggest very close to 600DM at 500MB over or near Mammoth Lakes. That weekend could be scorching without 700MB Monsoon Moisture. Let hope there is some. I guess even more important point is, hope the fires are mostly out!
Dr Howard and the DWEEBS……………..:-)
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A slow cooling trend and an increase in wind will provide some relief from the heat and unhealthy air quality through Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible the next couple days with best chances over Southern Mono County. With the winds backing from the Southwest, the worst smoke from the Lions Fire; now only 80% contained and Ferguson fire, 33% contained should remain to our north the next couple of day. However we will still have haze and smoke. By Friday, the well advertised trough will descend from the Gulf of AK. The flow will increase from the west and that may be concerning. At the moment, Saturday is expected to be the most windy. There are model differences on how strong the winds will get so stay tuned….The Dweebs should have better handle on the wind by late afternoon Wednesday or Thursday AM. It will either be quite breezy or windy. Either way, the air-mass moving in for the weekend and early next week is cooler, very dry for summer….leading to potential for critical fire weather conditions. Winds in the non-wind protected areas would mean local gusts 30 to 40 MPH if the forecast becomes windy, If Breezy, only 15 to 30 MPH. High temperatures will cool to the mid 70s this weekend with lows possible in the 40s.
For those interested in some good AIr Quality Links for our area….They are below:
- AirNow https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&zipcode=93546&submit=Go
- Mammoth Lakes Tabular Data https://www.gbuapcd.org/cgi-bin/tabularViewer?siteName=AirVision/Mammoth%20Lakes
- Mammoth Lakes PM 2.5 Count https://tools.airfire.org/monitoring/v4/#!/simple?monitorid=lon_.118.961_lat_37.647_usfs.1069¢erlat=37.6795¢erlon=-118.9263&zoom=10&category=PM2.5_nowcastf
- Smoke Forecasts (use near surface smoke) https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/
How Smoke From Fires Can Effect Your Health: AirNow
https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=smoke.index
Air Quality Guide for Particle Pollution:
https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=pubs.aqguidepart
Very Warm Weather to continue for the high country as the Continental Subtropical high has found a home over the far southwest…..
Thursday July 26, 2018
High temperatures remained well into the 80s in Mammoth as upper heights at 500MB remained well north of 594DM. It appears that heights will continue very high as the Subtropical Continental high remains pretty much parked over the far west through the end of this month. This raises the question of whether there will be records for consecutive days above 80 in Mammoth and 100s in bishop. There were more thunderstorms throughout Mono County today. However, that should diminish with time. The upper ridge will be come more east-west orientated next week with more westerly flow into the Eastern Sierra during the 2nd half of next week. This is a dry pattern with stronger zephyr winds into the Bluzza weekend…. Expect highs in mammoth through the end of the month into the mid 80s with nights in the low to mid 50s. Some cooling is expected in early August…..
Week 2 and 3:
Something to watch out for….
Sometime during the period between week 2 and 3; “the week after the Bluzza fest”….there is going to be a pattern change to one of at least weak troughing over the Eastern Pacific to possible anomalous troughing for early to mid August.. Its effects could mean anything from just some cooling and breezy to possibly windy weather, to the possibility of hurricane moisture coming up from a dying hurricane off Baja, Mex.
The Dweebs will give you periodic updates on this pattern change next week as it develops and explain what may happen….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
Airmass modifacation underway with an increase of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the weekend….Saturday afternoon and Sunday look particularly active…
Friday July 20, 2018
Saturday AM:
Late yesterday there was a series of strong thunderstorms in Mammoth that produced heavy rainfall amounts between .47 and .74 hundreds of an inch within an hour. Heavy runoff occurred and some minor street flooding was observed. Todays convective outlook is still active with showers and thunderstorms once again developing during the afternoon with mid to late afternoon expected to bring the heaviest rains… The only change in the pattern worth noting is that the storms will be moving more today. Yesterdays cells were pretty stationary leading to very heavy rain. Today, there is expected to be more movement, and that “may” lead to lighter amounts.
Next Week:
Upper Continental high builds westward the new week, leading to atmospheric capping with an upper warm layer expected to develop my mid-week. This will suppress convection and result in warmer temperatures as well. The freezing level rises to 17000 feet Wednesday into Thursday, with 700MB temps 15C+ by Thursday. Expect a very warm 2nd half of next week with dry days and highs in the mid to upper 80s in Mammoth with highs 104 to 108 in the Owens Valley by Wednesday and especially Thursday the 26th.
At the moment the week 2 outlook shows Bluzza Weekend looking warm and dry with southwest flow…
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Air-mass modification is underway with wetter afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected through the weekend. This is due to the east west upper ridge over California earlier in the week that has settled southeast over the four corner states. There is an “Easterly Wave” that will move up through California this weekend increasing instability, mainly Saturday afternoon into Sunday. That period seems to have the potential to be the wettest this weekend.
Otherwise, the weekend will be a bit cooler with the added moisture as afternoon cloudiness will develop earlier, blocking sunshine. High temperatures will cool to the 70s this weekend, nights will be in the upper 40s to low 50s….Excellent sleeping weather!
Excerpt from WSFO RNO discussion:
Atmospheric moisture will be on the increase through the weekend so storms will become quite wet and capable of producing heavy rainfall. There will be flash flooding concerns due to potential training
storms, ample moisture, and increased instability. Despite all this, dry lightning strikes outside of the rain core could still potentially ignite new fires but a widespread dry lightning outbreak is not expected.
Thunderstorm coverage is likely to increase Saturday into Sunday with upper level waves potentially contributing to nocturnal thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday.
Both Saturday and Sunday look to be particularly active with the main threats being flash flooding, hail, and abundant lightning.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
