Saturday AM:

Late yesterday there was a series of strong thunderstorms in Mammoth that produced heavy rainfall amounts between .47 and .74 hundreds of an inch within an hour. Heavy runoff occurred and some minor street flooding was observed. Todays convective outlook is still active with showers and thunderstorms once again developing during the afternoon with mid to late afternoon expected to bring the heaviest rains… The only change in the pattern worth noting is that the storms will be moving more today. Yesterdays cells were pretty stationary leading to very heavy rain.  Today, there is expected to be more movement, and that  “may” lead to lighter amounts.

Next Week:

Upper Continental high builds westward the new week, leading to atmospheric capping with an upper warm layer expected to develop my mid-week. This will suppress convection and result in warmer temperatures as well.  The freezing level rises to 17000 feet Wednesday into Thursday, with 700MB temps 15C+ by Thursday. Expect a very warm 2nd half of next week with dry days and highs in the mid to upper 80s in Mammoth with highs 104 to 108 in the Owens Valley by Wednesday and especially Thursday the 26th.

At the moment the week 2 outlook shows Bluzza Weekend looking warm and dry with southwest flow…



Air-mass modification is underway with wetter afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected through the weekend. This is due to the east west upper ridge over California earlier in the week that has settled southeast over the four corner states. There is an “Easterly Wave” that will move up through California this weekend increasing instability, mainly Saturday afternoon into Sunday. That period seems to have the potential to be the wettest this weekend.
Otherwise, the weekend will be a bit cooler with the added moisture as afternoon cloudiness will develop earlier, blocking sunshine. High temperatures will cool to the 70s this weekend, nights will be in the upper 40s to low 50s….Excellent sleeping weather!

Excerpt from WSFO RNO discussion:
Atmospheric moisture will be on the increase through the weekend so storms will become quite wet and capable of producing heavy rainfall. There will be flash flooding concerns due to potential training
storms, ample moisture, and increased instability. Despite all this, dry lightning strikes outside of the rain core could still potentially ignite new fires but a widespread dry lightning outbreak is not expected.
Thunderstorm coverage is likely to increase Saturday into Sunday with upper level waves potentially contributing to nocturnal thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday.
Both Saturday and Sunday look to be particularly active with the main threats being flash flooding, hail, and abundant lightning.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)