Thursday PM:

Red Flag Warning Hoisted Today For Mono County for Saturday:

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ073&warncounty=CAC051&firewxzone=CAZ273&local_place1=13%20Miles%20E%20Lee%20Vining%20CA&product1=Red+Flag+Warning&lat=37.939&lon=-118.887

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Wednesday PM Update:

Much better air quality in Mammoth today. Last night was good too! Not counting on it every day but very good today! The weekend outlook looks breezy beginning Thursday afternoon into Friday with gusts continuing through the weekend….15 to 30mph. Highs will cool to the mid 70s with lows mostly in the 40s. It is a dry 5 day outlook.

Looked at the Forecast Models from today’s 12Z runs and WOW!!   Mother nature may be giving us a bit of a break in the heat throughout Eastern CA this weekend as compared to the warm temps of the past week.  But the maps are Awesome again in building the big subtropical continental high right back into the Great Basin and eventually California between Tuesday and the following weekend. This time the core of the max upper heights is more north, over north central Ca and Western NV by the weekend.  With a little bit of luck it will push enough moisture in here before it really sets up. So we cloud up limiting the heat.  When is this going to happen? The European waists no time as it starts building the upper high into CA beginning Monday afternoon. By Tuesday PM it is set up over the Desert SW and California. By the following Friday evening, guidance suggest very close to 600DM at 500MB over or near Mammoth Lakes. That weekend could be scorching without 700MB Monsoon Moisture. Let hope there is some.  I guess even more important point is, hope the fires are mostly out!

 

Dr Howard and the DWEEBS……………..:-)

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A slow cooling trend and an increase in wind will provide some relief from the heat and unhealthy air quality through Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible the next couple days with best chances over Southern Mono County. With the winds backing from the Southwest, the worst smoke from the Lions Fire;  now only 80% contained and Ferguson fire, 33% contained should remain to our north the next couple of day. However we will still have haze and smoke.  By Friday, the well advertised trough will descend from the Gulf of AK.  The flow will increase from the west and that may be concerning. At the moment,  Saturday is expected to be the most windy. There are model differences on how strong the winds will get so stay tuned….The Dweebs should have better handle on the wind by late afternoon Wednesday or Thursday AM.  It will either be quite breezy or windy. Either way, the air-mass moving in for the weekend and early next week is cooler, very dry for summer….leading to potential for critical fire weather conditions. Winds in the non-wind protected areas would mean local gusts 30 to 40 MPH if the forecast becomes windy, If Breezy, only 15 to 30 MPH.  High temperatures will cool to the mid 70s this weekend with lows possible in the 40s.

 

For those interested in some good AIr Quality Links for our area….They are below:

  1. AirNow       https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&zipcode=93546&submit=Go
  2. Mammoth Lakes Tabular Data     https://www.gbuapcd.org/cgi-bin/tabularViewer?siteName=AirVision/Mammoth%20Lakes
  3. Mammoth Lakes PM 2.5 Count    https://tools.airfire.org/monitoring/v4/#!/simple?monitorid=lon_.118.961_lat_37.647_usfs.1069&centerlat=37.6795&centerlon=-118.9263&zoom=10&category=PM2.5_nowcastf
  4. Smoke Forecasts  (use near surface smoke)     https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

How Smoke From Fires Can Effect Your Health:  AirNow

https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=smoke.index

Air Quality Guide for Particle Pollution:

https://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=pubs.aqguidepart