Fridays Headline is above still applicable for this afternoon Saturday. Models still struggling with pattern along with TS Rosa moisture.  New ECMWF is back again from three days ago bringing in a 3rd system that is colder for Midweek. More moisture from Rose is in play as well with the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame. The 3rd system will move in Thursday and it is colder with more wind. European is beefing up QPF as well.  So the Yo Yo is in full swing this afternoon. Can’t wait until there are multiple runs for the same scenario. We continue to struggle with a low confidence forecast, even 3 to 4 day away.

The up shot from all this is the same as the Dweebs have been touting. If you going into the backcountry in the upper elevations, especially above 10,000 feet, bring winter gear next week just in case it snows. This afternoons NCEP WPC QPF is back up to an 1.00 of moisture over the Crest next week.

Why is all this change going on in the models. It is Fall and early Fall into October along with Mid march into April are notorious for model flip Flopping. The content is cooling off, and the Pacific Ocean is coming into play.


Just enjoy some of nature’s best!


The Dweeber……….;-)



9:40AM Friday

GFS has just finished running and the tracking of the second system, takes it to the Bay Area, then South East along the coast line to San Diego. This is much like last nights 00Z and 06Z runs. In this scenario, most of the cold air remains to the west of the sierra crest along with the precip. If by chance the storm swings inland a bit more to the north, then more precip would be expected. At the moment, about .25 to .35 is expected over the Mammoth Sierra Tuesday into Wednesday. A few inches of snowfall is certainly possible. The Southern Sierra should fare better with up to 8 to 10 inches over the higher elevations where there is more vertical motion, more moisture and being closer to the upper low itself, colder aloft.  The snow level over the southern part of the Southern Sierra will be possibly 7000 to 8000 feet.

The CRFC has the freezing level above 11,000 ft Tuesday over the Mammoth Crest Tuesday. Typically snow levels with a system like this are about 1500 feet below the freezing level.  So about a 9500 foot snow level is certainly possible during the main part of the storm Tuesday.  This storm is likely to bring a good dusting as temperatures will cool further by Wednesday AM with the snow level dropping briefly to about Canyon Lodge


I update again Later Saturday.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)



As headlined, we will be greeted by our first storm of the season Tuesday of next week.  Precipitation is likely Tuesday, however, more time is needed to know what part of California will benefit best.  Those hiking in the back country need to keep a weary eye on the forecast as there are enough differences in the models to warrant….

Next up date in an hour…..