Note:  Snow has been building in Russia and Canada (especially east and central). It is above normal in most areas. The EPS from the Euro climate model shows snow building up well over the Western Mountains by Mid December.  This tells me that we’ll have good snow pack for skiing over the Christmas & New Years holidays.  🙂

1st good storm “may hit”  as early as November 14th.

The Dweeber……………………:-)



Brief look this morning at the GFS 12z run shows 4 distant short waves in a NNW flow aloft.  One Friday night, Sunday night, Wednesday Am and Friday Am.  Each one will be associated with an increase in wind over the Sierra Crest. Each one will bring at least some cooling,  following by some warming the next day.

With the upper ridge parked out at between 125 and 130 west, we’ll stay dry for the next 7 days.  Daytime highs will vary in Mammoth between 55 and 62 with lows at night in the 20s for the most part.  Dew points will remain low, and so snow making conditions will be good at night.

Climate models still show moderate snowfall before the end of the month…


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)


It is almost November and it is time to take a serious look into the Crystal Ball for the weeks ahead…… For you Met Techs


  1. Dynamic Models from CLIVAR
  2.  MJO
  3. Precip composites
  4. Lagg correlations in time
  5. Teleconnections from ECMWF and GFS
  6. CFC V2
  7. Ensembles and Control from ECMWF and GFS


Although the short term outlook is dry with temperatures recovering from a dry cold front last Sunday, there are Western hemispheric changes in the pattern forecasted for the next few weeks from our climate models that may result in sierra storminess about the middle or just beyond in November.

Here are the climate signals used and comments.

  1. The dynamic models are showing the reemergence of an MJO signal over the Pacific, Western Hemi then propagating to the Indian Ocean. SEE: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
  2. At 200Hpa,, the Lagg Composites show for November MJO in phase I producing troughing California.  (Go to Phase I; no Mask (OND)   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/
  3.  Check out precip composites for the MJO in Phases 1 and 2.  with phase two of the MJO having the greatest odds for Central CA.   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/
  4. Teleconnections…  AO is forecasted to become negative in Mid November which usually suppresses the upper jet to the south.  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
  5. CFC v2   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/  (Suggests precip the end of the 2nd week of November into 3rd week)
  6. GFS control and ensembles are not showing any convincing signs yet of a good storm into California, but the foundation of the above may change that in the next week.