1:50PM 11/28/2018

In that the Dweebs will not be updating for a few days or longer, it is noteworthy to let you know that;

  1. The Wednesday Through Friday storm is expected top bring storm totals of some 4 to 5 feet by Friday AM on Mammoth Mt.  There should be a break Friday afternoon in the snowfall.
  2. The late Friday night, Saturday’s storm is not going to be a big precip producer. However, it will be all quality snow with high Snow to Water ratios because of how cold 700MB temps are going to get.   There is still the chance that somewhere between 6 and 12 inches that may fall on Mammoth Mtn.
  3. Snow showers will linger for a while
  4. Next Weather system is the mid-week storm. I am staying with the European at the moment as it has been the most consistent. The 12Z GFS threw a curve ball in developing the Southern CA storm off the coast of Northern CA Tuesday,  Then bringing it southward with yet another cold short wave Wednesday into Thursday; the Euro is consistent in bringing in a storm that split off from the westerlies well up into the Gulf of AK then drops south to off the Southern Coast Wednesday. The storm favors Southern CA and Baja. However to its north, the Owens valley may benefit from its south-easterly flow and the Southern and Mammoth benefiting from some light to possibly moderate snow as well.  Well see what the GFS does with that storm later this afternoon. ((UPDATE)) 4:30PM  shows the GFS flipped back to their earlier thinking and is consistent with the ECMWF. This is once again mainly a Southern CA to somewhat Central CA storm.  Concerns revolve around the placement of the upper Low as there is going to be some heavy rain potential with it. Concerns are in regards to it effect upon recent burn scars, especially in the Malibu Area Wednesday. At the moment, the current model run of the gfs 18Z Wed, keeps the heaviest rains off shore but that may change.

Beyond  Mid week….The Storm door remains open for large snow bearing storms to bring heavy amounts of snowfall to Mammoth Lakes by the end of that week..then well into the 2nd week of December… In fact the European models this morning showed a possible “AR” in the making about the 11th of December. As always….Forecast models are never perfect…just forgiven….:-)

 

The Dweeber…………..:-)

 

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Residents throughout Mono County will be getting ready for the latest on slot of storms here in the high country, when once finished, may bring up to 2.5 feet of snow to the Town and some 4 to 5 feet over the crest by Friday.  Another but colder storm Saturday morning may bring our first quasi platinum powder conditions with the chance of some 6 to 12 inches of snow over the mountain at 13:1 or 14:1.  Although the long-range weather progs bring only very small chances of additional snowfall to the high country next week, the hemispheric pattern remains mostly progressive which means that any ridging off the west coast will be temporary, allowing more storms to move in the following week….week 3.

Details;

The upper flow over the eastern pacific this morning is a beautiful sight!  Beautiful in the way on how consolidated it is from 45N to 32N all the way west to north of Hawaii. This distance of fetch really can pick up a lot of moisture and storm momentum as it hits California. Within the flow are some very exciting features such as small ARs and most of all, as closed surface cyclone that spins up as it moves in, just north of the Bay Area mid morning Thursday.  Mid level flow for moisture transport is very good Thursday through Sunrise Friday AM. Thus, we are in for a protracted period of moderate to heavy snowfall beginning Later Wednesday night through Friday AM…  IE; 06Z Thursday through 14Z Friday. (30 to 32 hours!)  So it is easy to see that snowfall amounts in town could easily top 2 feet by Friday AM, then another 6 to 12 inches by Sunday;  Over the top of Mammoth Mt. between today Tuesday and Friday AM. some 3 to 4 feet,  Then another colder storm with snow to water ratios between 13:1 to 15:1  so another additional foot+ is possible over Mammoth Mt. There is also the chance of some light snow in bishop Saturday/Ngt.

We are really getting set up for the Christmas Holiday. If you have been waiting to book for the Christmas holidays…better do it now as the cat will soon be out of the bag!

 

Longer Range:

The main point here is that the Dweebs do not see long-term cold blocking in the east,  The pattern is expected to remain in the longer term “progressive”. This means that although we may have an upcoming week like next week where by some cold trofs develop in the mid west and shift east, the cold trofing is progressive and gets flushed out off out over the Atlantic, keeping the wave length open. This in turn keeps west coast ridging slowly progressive as well.   Next week is a good example. This cold system that leaves the sierra early next week progresses east and upper ridging follows for CA. We will have some fair days, especially Monday into possibly Tuesday but it will be cold to begin with.  Of note, the ECMWF is dry for us next week, all the way to the following weekend so that is a possibility too. The GFS model shows a split storm track that favors Southern CA and Northern Baja. There is the possibility that we may get a little light precip mid-week from that system but most will be on the west side. Odds are, the Northern Sierra will be dry. The upshot is, even if the GFS is correct, anything we get would be light.   I expect a healthy belt of westerlies to return the week following, beginning as early as the 10th of DEC.

 

Climate:

Webinar Conference with CPC indicated that there are significant doubts now if EL Nino will reach moderate threshold. Says Pacific Basin Warming needs further westerly wind bursts.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)