9:00Am Thursday AM Update:

Mammoth Mt Reports 24 hour snowfall amounts up to 4 feet of fresh snow. Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 4:00AM Friday. Upper elevations for the period 4:00AM this morning through 4:00AM Friday could pick up another 1 to 2 feet for a total 5 day snowfall of between 7 and 8 feet over the Mammoth Crest.

The Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center in Mammoth Lakes has issued a BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING:

* TIMING…In effect from Wed 6 PM PST to Fri 7 AM PST.
* AFFECTED AREA…The eastern slopes of the Sierra Nevada mountain range between Virginia Lakes on the north, to Bishop Creek on the south.
* AVALANCHE DANGER…The avalanche danger for the warning area will rise to HIGH tonight and will remain at HIGH thru tomorrow and tomorrow night.
* REASON/IMPACTS…Heavy snow combined with wind will result in widespread avalanching.
* PRECAUTIONARY / PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Avalanches may run long distances and can run into mature forests, valley floors, or flat terrain.
*As a note, Mammoth Mt is an avalanche controlled area with snow safety devises that is much safer than the outlying back country area.

Cold Unstable air will bring periods of heavy snow today. Snowfall amounts at the Village could add another foot+ to last nights accumulations. Friday will have improving conditions with the chance of snow showers and light snowfall accumulations. 1-2 inches. Saturday looks partly cloudy and dry. Another but weaker storm may bring another 1 to 5 inches of snow to the 7000 to 8000 foot level and between 4 and 7 inches to Mammoth Mt by Monday AM. The remainder of the new week looks dry and milder….Excellent week ahead!

Next possible stormy period beginning about the 1st of February.

Note: El Nino has not yet coupled with the overlying atmosphere, over the tropics. The current pattern is being modulated possibly by the MJO. The Dweebs are expecting a highly amplified pattern developing later this new week which “may” end up with an under cutting of the westerlies by the first week of February. The Dweebs main focus will be on this possibility and will watch and report on its development next week for the longer range. Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)

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As of 1:00PM; winds were pretty steady over the crest of Mammoth Mt with 65MPH, gusts 75-80MPH; In town, winds were SSW 15 to 30MPH. SFO Radar showing leading band of Precipitation already on shore over the Bay Area with pockets of heavy rain now occurring. Snowfall is into the Northern Sierra south to Alpine County. Looks like there is a small band of showers over the Sawtooth Range west of Bridgeport, CA.

The Updated HRRR model begins snowfall over the Mammoth Crest about 3:00PM with snowfall increasing in town around 4:00PM. It will be light…..

Winds will steadily increase this evening as a 970MB surface low west of Northern CA heads towards the Pacific NW.
PWAT within the storm is approaching 1.2-1.3 inches over our region by Mid Evening Wednesday. 850mb winds from the south-southwest will increase to 50-55 kts. This strong flow will combine with high moisture content to produce onshore IVT values of 750-850 kg/m/s, categorizing this event as a strong atmospheric river. Copious amounts of precip will occur tonight into the early mornings hours here in the high country. Expect a good four to five feet of snow over night over Mammoth Mt with 2.5 to 3.5 in the Town by Thursday evening. Most of this will fall tonight into Thursday AM.Local Blizzard conditions will hit tonight and continue into thorough 4:00AM Thursday. Snowfall will wind down Thursday evening…..The weekend looks partly cloudy with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens. Another smaller weather system will bring light snowfall Sunday night….Then a long break of a week or more…. PS…this is no El Nino…..So far the convective effects of El Nino has not awakened…..

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….:-)