Monday AM

 

Mammoth mt reports 4 to 6 feet storm total so far….

MJO is forecasted to travel to phase spaces 7 8 and most likely 1…..significant atmospheric possible later next week…..southern half of state favored at this time but stay tuned……

 

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Although the polar vortex does not visit the Golden State, sometimes a very cold Trof over the far west can couple with low pressure very near a westward displaced PV.  When it does, we can experience one of our coldest weather type with an CPK Air outbreak….   Continental polar air can get displaced to the far western portions over the CONUS when a high amplitude ridge sets up near 140west.  Such a scenario is setting up now and will put the Great Basin in the deep freeze within the next couple of weeks.

in the meantime, modified Arctic Air moving off the coast of BC,Can is chilling the next series of storms with snow to water ratios climbing quickly. This next storm for tonight may bring S/W ratios of between 12 and 14:1 over Mammoth Mt. The light fluffy snow is more uncommon over the far west and usually falls during the coldest of winters. The results of this storm tonight which will be accompanied by strong winds, will be blizzard conditions along highway 395 as very light snowflakes become more buoyant due to the cold temps within the dendritic growth zone at about 15,000 to 20,000 feet.

Additional snowfall is expected to bring another 2 to 4 feet between the Town of Mammoth and Mammoth’s upper mountain by Monday.  Last but least is an ever colder storm expected Monday night.  This storms S/W ratio will be in excess of 15:1. Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. The amount of snowfall expected Monday through Tuesday at these ratios will more than qualify for “the platinum powder alert”. Additionally, for thoughs that are lucky  enough to get into to it Tuesday and especially Wednesday AM or when ever the top opens…it will be a once in a decade experience as the light powder will very deep as well.

Bring your snorkels…… 😳

(After a break Wednesday through Thursday a new storm moves in during the weekend…..timing uncertain)

 

LONG RANGE:

Here comes the fun part…..   There are no discussions on this from the NWS….this is strictly  Dweeb Speak…..

 

i have have been following the RMM  phase space and the MJO for sometime now. The NCEP GFS has been very consistent in its progression of the MJO through phase space 7 and 8. however, 1st there is retrogression to phase space 6, due to the progression of an easterly Rossby Wave.  This is where we are picking up our cold trof over the inter mountain west. This is only transitory I believe as progression takes place again during week 2.  Once this tropical forcing moves from phase space 7 to 8 get ready for the Pineapple Express…..