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Archive for May, 2019
Current Long wave Trof over the west reloads one last time with showers increasing again…..Block over NW Territories breaks down by Sunday and weather returns more seasonal like next week…..
Wednesday May 29, 2019
Our West Coast Trough is forecasted to deepen again as more energy is diverted anomalously south over the far west. This will lead to an increase in moisture, dynamics and showers and thunderstorms. The process begins Wednesday with mainly afternoon and evening showers increasing each day through Friday. The Weekend looks unsettled as well with a drying trend beginning Sunday into the middle of next week.
There is actually an upper low that spins up through Friday AM and remains in the “sweet spot”, Friday through Saturday with upper divergence over the Central Sierra. By Sunday the Upper Low gradually weakens over Southern CA as high pressure builds over our state Monday through Wednesday next week. This upper high will bring the warmest temperatures of the year to the Eastern Sierra. Low to mid 70s are possible by Tuesday or Wednesday with low 90s in Bishop. Creeks and Streams will be running high next week, as the run-off resumes….
Long Range: (The Telle’s)
With the EPO going positive this weekend; well get a real taste of late spring weather the following week. However, teleconnections favor the EPO going negative again by the following weekend. Note; (High pressure blocking over AK is negative EPO and low pressure over AK is +EPO; Blocking over EPO region, often forces the jet to the south over the far west.
Thus toughing is likely to develop again over the far west by the following weekend. So far, the Trof (-height anomaly) according to the ensembles, does not deepen as far south or is as cold as far south, as the current pattern. Its negative height anomaly remains further north over the Pacific NW as compared as the current Trof with its negative height anomaly over Southern CA and the Desert Southwest. This means that most likely it will be a milder system at this latitude. It will bring drier air into our region and offer mainly high clouds, wind and temps more in the 60s, rather than the 30s, 40s, and 50s of late.
Are we done with snowfall here in Mammoth? The climo shows the last frost about Fathers Day. That is usually preceded by some light snowfall. Remember…Climate is what you expect and weather is what you get! 🙂
Dr Howard the Dweebs………………………:-)
Another cold spring storm to add to record May snowfall…..blocking pattern to break down next week…..
Saturday May 25, 2019
Monday AM May 27th
Chilly!
Mammoth Mt reported 3 inches of new. Not nearly what was forecasted but fresh powder….
25 degrees early this AM. Yesterday’s high 35. 30 degrees below normal.
Were deep in the solar minimum…
The weather this week is highlighted by the break down of the blocking pattern over NW territories and Eastern AK. That should result in warmer temps by weeks end and next week.
However…..Upper long wave Trof will stay over the west this week with showers and thunder just about everyday…..
- Temperatures will gradually rise each day this week….depending upon cloud cover.
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There is really two parts to this whole pattern that worth mentioning. Of course the pattern highlighted by high latitude blocking over the northwest territories of Canada that is forcing the long way Trof quasi stationary over the far west. This blocking along with negative AO has been with us for a good part of the winter. It is still affecting the Conus today.
Additionally, you have the high angle of mid July like sun that plays heavenly upon the convective process. Do not be surprised if you hear about cold core funnels Sunday over parts of CA and Nevada, as the cold pool from this system is associated with 1000-500mb 540 DM thickness pool approaching the SFO early Sunday AM. Very unstable by the afternoon.
Will look at the lifteds tomorrow AM.
TOML. Stands to pick up 2 to 4 inches at the Village and 4 to 8 on Mammoth mt by Monday AM.MORE LATER….
Sunday AM
qpf has been bumped up with some 6 to 10 inches possible on Mammoth Mt. 3 to 5 in town by Monday AM. It will be a Chilly day today in town with highs in the 30s. Lows in the low 20s.
Extended models are showing a remarkable turn around in the week two outlook with much above normal temps developing during the latter part of the first week of June into the 2nd week of June. This would create a whole new set of problems with runoff, as highs would climb into the 80s in Mammoth during the week two period.
stay tuned…….
Another Cold Storm headed for Mammoth Saturday night into Sunday with well below normal temperatures…..Weather to remain cold next week with additional snowfall…..
Friday May 17, 2019
Mammoth Locals enjoyed a chilly dry Friday with winter ski and board conditions on 12 to 18 inches of fresh powder. The mountain is open for skiing and boarding from 7:00AM to 2:00PM daily.
The next weather system has another smaller subtropical connection that will allow for another 6 to 12 inches of snowfall on Mammoth Mt, Saturday night through Sunday. For those skiing and boarding Sunday, expect cold, winter like conditions on Mammoth Mt, so plan according. The QPF forecast updated for California Rivers Forecast center suggests up to an inch and a quarter of precip just west of the Mammoth Crest. Some 3 to 5 inches of snowfall is possible at the Village at Mammoth between Saturday night and Sunday night. The series of cold storms innated by the MJO over the El Nino Base state earlier in the week is thought to be at least, partially responsible for the unusually cold unsettled weather for mid May. The Cold unsettled weather is likely to continue through mid week…..and possibly beyond…..
The first half of the new week looks to be cold, breezy and blustery. Snow showers are possible….Especially mid week….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)
