9/21/2019

No changes in the forecast through Mid-Week.   IE.  Warming Through Sunday. A little cooler Monday and warming Tuesday Through Wednesday.  However, with a strong Trof coming in Friday and antecedent warmth due to the anomalous warmth mid-week, a possible wind event is in the cards for either Thursday or Friday. Critical Fire Weather?

Prospects for Snow the weekend of the 28th:

  1. Forecast Models ECMWF, Canadian and JAMA all show the same Trof in a position to give a healthy amount of snowfall that weekend beginning sometime Friday. The outlier is the GFS  which gives only light amounts (1-6 inches) as the Trof sets up further east. Snowfall amounts by the end of next weekend;  The ECMWF is the strongest with between 1 and 2 feet over the crest, with its control run last night. However, its ensembles only show up to 6 inches. (on Mammoth MT)
  2. What is so supporting in this extended range outlook is the fact that the MJO stalls out in Phase One, Which for this time of the year shows a California signal for Cold and somewhat wet.

Much More Later next week!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)