Archive for October, 2019

After a Brief Warm up…Pattern to bring cooler breezy weather into our region Thursday through Saturday….The Possibility of PSPS are once again on the table…..California Heat Wave looming later next week…..

Wednesday Evening the 16th;

Most of the global models have the MJO in Phase II with some now pushing the Phase III idea.    Odds are, it going to get very warm in CA later next week…..Could be critical fire situation…

Overall, its looking like a pretty slow start to the ski season this year. We’ll have to rely on what Mammoth Mt lays down as far as snowfall on the ground for the first half of November….

 

The Dweeber……….:-)

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It was a nice warm day throughout the region on Tuesday as high temperatures pushed into the mid 60s….  Little change in temperatures is expected for today Wednesday.  A pattern change to cooler, breezy weather will arrive Thursday with gusty winds and lower humidly.  There is the possibility of a bit stronger winds Saturday afternoon, as more NW upper jet energy works its way closer to the west coast and Northern CA.   Although this is not the classic NW wind event for fall, messages are already coming out from SCE about a possible PSPS situation for Thursday. High temperatures will cool some 15 degrees between Wednesday and the weekend.

 

Longer Range;

It’s Mid October now and getting close, climo-wise, to the shift from the continental heat source to ocean based. This change in the location of the hemispheric heat source on a large scale, in another few weeks is usually better for both visibility and model verification. (November) IE. We may be better able to see patterns on a longer time scale, emerge in the global models by November.   At the moment, the big driver in the Northern Hemi’s weather is the strong IOD event over the Indian Ocean. It is one of the strongest on record. It is responsible for anomalous westerlies over the Indian Ocean and the piling up of warm warm water over the far western Indian Ocean near the Arabian Sea. It is contributing to the static current phase of the MJO in phases I which relates to cooler than normal conditions in the west. The ECMWF shows the possibly of the MJO moving east to phase two. Thus week two weather will be warmer.  Phase II of MJO is less cool in the far west as the coolness shifts southeast.  The important idea for our region is that with this Positive IOD ongoing, it is quite possible that we will have more dry wind episodes over the next week possibly two, depending upon what the MJO does.

 

Phase I of MJO in October:

 

There is only a weak bias for precip for Northern and Central CA in phase I during October. The some Global Models progress the MJO east to phase II during week 2 and so it is possible that warmer weather will be on the way later next week. Thereafter, it weakens into the circle of death. Will it reemerge in phase one again week 3?  If it does, that phase in November, has a bias for more significant cold, wind and precipitation for Northern and Central CA.


Next Windy System Arriving Tuesday night….PSPS is again possible……Turning colder Mid Week…..No Precipitation expected

Another dry cold front will be approaching Mono County Late Tuesday with moderate winds again expected….Strongest Winds will be with the steepest gradient. The timing is between 5:00AM and 11:00AM Wednesday morning.   The Planned Power Outage may occur,  well before this time….

Otherwise, expect cooler weather Wednesday and Thursday in Mammoth Lakes with highs in the 40s by Thursday after early morning lows down into the low 20s that morning.  It will gradually warm up over the weekend. The weather system is dropping down from British Columbia, CA.  The cold air dump is into the Great Basin. Pressures will build strongly East of the Sierra Wednesday and so areas west of the Sierra to the coast will have an off shore event with quite warm temperature’s. This is due to the compressional heating effect.

Next interesting weather system about the 19th

 

Note:  Moderate confidence exists for above-normal precipitation off the West Coast and into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California during Week-2, associated with anomalous troughing forecast in the Northeast Pacific that could phase with a second trough that may merge prior to this with the remnants of TS Hagibis. Remaining forecasts of above- and below-normal precipitation with moderate confidence over the next two weeks result from dynamical model consensus among CFS, ECMWF, and GEFS guidance.

 

Warming trend this week with above normal temps this weekend……The forecast looks dry for the next week….

After the Big Chill the past few days, Mammoth was climbing out of cold temperatures and warming up quickly. The Dweebs expect temperatures in the upper 60s this weekend!

Today, the  high temperature in Bishop Wednesday was 73 degrees and in Mammoth, 57 degrees. Lows this morning were 32 degrees and 24 degrees respectfully…

The Autumn Foliage season  is getting a late start in Mammoth with the yellow and red slower to develop this year. However, higher elevations are going off nicely.

 

Weather Discussion:

A Trough of low pressure will move through the area Thursday, creating gusty winds, but little change in temperatures.   Lows at night will come up to the low 30 degrees from the 20s of late.

This Trof may bring a short period of critical fire weather on Thursday.  Looking toward the weekend, ridging is the word. This upper ridge of high pressure will build through early next week.  The ridge flattens Tuesday into Wednesday with more afternoon breeze and somewhat cooler temperatures. (October 9th)

Another belt of westerlies pushes into the pacific NW the following weekend. This is more of a zonal flow with Mammoth remaining well south of the jet. Lots of high clouds possible but nice weather and seasonal temperatures. (Low 60s)

It will be the following week as we get into the middle of the month that a more significant Trof affects our area. This is around the 15th of the month of October, give or take a few days.

 

The Dweeber…………………………:-)