Short Term,

Most the of the short term is about wind and milder temperatures….

The Dweebs believe that the Arctic Oscillation in its positive phase will tend to keep most Arctic Air bottled up well to our north. As a result, our wet storms of late November and cold storms of mid to late December will take a back seat until high latitude blocking in the right places sets up.

The short term forecast for the next few days, shows diminishing winds today following by a NW jet diving into the Great Basin New Years Day Wednesday. So today is a good break between the winds and the up-slope cloudiness of Monday with a Sunny Warmer day  and diminishing winds.  Highs today will be in the 40s in town and 30s on the mountain.   Get up there today and carve it up!

A Great Basin Slider will crank the winds up on Mammoth Mt for a few days, beginning on New Years Day into Thursday.  NW winds over the upper elevation will crank up into the 70-80 MPH range over the crest by the afternoon Wednesday with lower elevations in the 40 mph range. Temps will be in the 30s and 40s.  Friday AM looks to be a windless morning…

For the Weekend Outlook, Expect Light Winds Friday AM with Winds strong enough Friday night for some silky wind pack Saturday AM. Winds Saturday and Sunday will be moderate over the upper elevations.  Sunday’s breezes could be lighter than Saturday.   At the moment, the weather system for the weekend does not look to bring any significant chances of precipitation to the high country. It will be cooler over the weekend.   As we begin the new week,  expect lighter winds Monday into Tuesday with Blue Bird Conditions.

Some increase in wind is expected toward the 9th……

Long Range:

As we approach the middle of the month, the GFS Ensemble Mean shows the long wave Trof over the Western Mid-West trending to retrograde westward again. So between the 10th and the 15th the weather will be turning colder again and more unsettled with colder storms.

Its been a long time since the Pacific has opened up with long fetch storms that are wet in nature. The Euro, both in its weeklies and ensembles are showing a period between the 20th and 30th of January with a strong -EPO teleconnection early in that period that ends up with a strong  -WPO toward the end of the month of January. This suggests strong high pressure blocking over the AK to the Bering Sea region by the end of that period with significant under-cutting of the westerlies into the west coast during that time period. That highly suggests the potential for a few AR episodes during that time period.

 

The Dweebs will keep a weary eye on the developments this January…..

 

Happy New Year to all…

I wish you all the very best for the beginning of the new roaring 20s!! 

This new year will mark 40 years of providing weather to the Eastern Sierra

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….