8:00pm. Monday

Fellow Dweebs, if you looking for a big storm anytime soon, it is very unlikely. However, Mammoth Mt is doing some amazing grooming every night turning up the surface of the snow so that skiing and boarding is excellent each day.  After all, 4 to 7.5 feet of snow is very good.   Ps. We did pick up 3 to 4 inches between the main lodge and the summit over the weekend…

Forecast discussion:

We have one more weather system that will bring wind and cooling later Tuesday and Wednesday, over the higher elevations. Thereafter, a powerful transitory ridge builds into a California, strong enough for record or near record high temperatures over the weekend…high 50s. This will be followed by breezy cooler weather beginning Sunday afternoon into the early part of next week. Unfortunately, this looks like a dry pattern as well.

Looking at the models, they are dry this week into next. By about the 10th to the 15th, there looks the be a change in the pattern according to the gfs model. However, it does not have the support of the EURO yet. What this means is that to take the storm showing up on the GFS with a grain of salt until we have the support of both the MJO and both the EC and GFS week 2. The new long range ECMWF came in today on schedule. This is more of a inter seasonal climate model, that does show the possibility of a storm around mid month. But over all, Feb looks well below normal for precip here.  Things break loose about the end of the month with big storms beginning around the 1st of March through mid month.  Remember, this is an outlook not a forecast…..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……:-)





945am Sunday.


As we can see…the model did not do well.  Expecting clearing skies this afternoon after the chance of snow showers.
taking a look at the weather for the upcoming week, it will be dry. There is a wave moving to our north Tuesday for a bit of increase in wind over the upper elevations.

The weather will be unseasonably mild Thursday through Saturday. Saturday will be the mildest day with highs in the upper 50s.
We do have a change in the pattern early the following week. There is a windy NW slider that will bring strong winds Sunday night into Monday. Winds may pick up as early as Sunday afternoon.  The system will have little moisture with it so expect light amounts of snow unless it backs up a bit over water. At this time, it is not forecasted to do so.


Tropical forcing….

A flip in the MJO last night was encouraging with the MJO re-emerging over the Indian Ocean later week 2 in some of the models.


more later the new week…


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…..:-)



Sunday night. 9:45pm

here is an update on the storm.

Looking at the rapid refresh model It says the storm moves into mammoth mt between 3:00am and 4:am Sunday.  The QPF suggests….between 5 And 9 inches of snow over top of mammoth mt. Frankly, I do not know where it is getting that much but that is what it shows storm total.  In town much less. Just a few inches….

So we’ll see if the RRR model is correct when Mammoth MT reports Monday AM.

long range forecasts for snow are bleak through next weekend.  Weather turning much colder later week 2.


the dweeber




This is just a quick update on the Sunday AM storm. CRFC came out slightly wetter this morning for the Sunday system for Yosemite than yesterday.  Snowfall still in the light category. (1 to 6 inches.)  My Estimate is 2 to 4 inches on Mammoth Mt with 1 to 2 inches in town by Sunday night.  I anticipate a burst of precipitation Sunday Early-Mid morning…..Snow level on Sunday 6500 FEET


It will be unsettled early next week with a few snow showers possible at times.  The Upper Jet moves north on Wednesday then way up there in Canada by Friday and Saturday.  This is a new weather type with exceptionally high 500mb heights Thursday into Saturday.  The GFS keeps the heights high through Super Sunday as the Ground Hog is expected to see his shadow.  The Euro has a front coming in Sunday night…..Well See.


Go 49er’s!!!


The Dweeber……………….